News Focus
News Focus
icon url

BobDoleYahoo

08/09/18 3:35 PM

#19444 RE: StockItOut #19423

Yeah we'll need some time for all this to take effect for sure and all the expiration dates out there. In the mean time, I suspect the stock will go sideways or continue tanking until there's more clarification on how much dilution they're doing daily and $$$ in the bank (or lack thereof).

I don't know if you have the app, but on mine, when I log in, it pops up a message each time if I want to accept or not. I just hit the X to get out. So he's saying 15% on the first day agreed to the 3 movie limit change already because they only do 3 or less movies.

MoviePass/HMNY are on the right track though. Before, they were focusing on the "crunching data mumble jumble... please go see every freaking movie in the world so we can milk shareholders to death" idea. At least Mitch now said he's looking for those who only use it a few times a year and doesn't are if the heavy users leave.

Thanks for the clarification on the 60%. "Cost of goods" is affected the same as "Cost of Revenue", for the most part. Technically Cost of Goods Sold is included in Cost of Revenue. Cost of Revenue encompasses more. The ticket cost purchased each month is also included in Cost of Revenue. So when he said he reduced it by 60%, I believe I understand it right, that he was referring to the SEC 8-K filing in my screenshot on the right side where that 8-K basically says they are limiting people from seeing certain movies etc., and therefore reduced ticket costs, and therefore reduced "Cost of Goods / monthly deficit", hence "Cost of Revenue". So I think I understood it correctly, I think.

So it sounds like their term they made up "Monthly cash deficit" is "cost of goods", which is most likely "Cost of Revenue" or at least a portion of it. When the 10-Q comes out, if it matches my expected numbers I posted before, then I'd have known I got it right, assuming they were truthful in their prior SEC reports about the $40 million + cash deficit per month.

But... in one of the articles I posted earlier today, it talked about them not having financial controls or whatever AND typos in their SEC reports. That means they could have "messed up" (intentionally or unintentionally?) reporting a number and all my calculations would be off. DAMN YOU TED!

There's ZERO way they can break even unless:

1. They reduce ticket usage to EXACTLY 1 ratio and they have no other costs on top of the ticket costs (which is NOT true). There'a always additional costs for "Cost of Goods" or "Cost of Revenue". So this is not a valid scenario.

2. They reduce ticket use UNDER a 1 ratio (i.e. people go to the movies 0.75 times a month or something on average). THEN, I can see them breaking even even with Cost of Revenue.

3. They somehow herd MoviePass subs to watch movies where it's least expensive and completely remove expensive theaters from even showing up.

4. They have other sources of revenue AS THEY PROMISED. DAMN YOU TED AND MITCH! Q1, they had over $1.4 million or so in ad revenue, so if this increases, then yeah. But no, I don't see it increasing just yet. I gave them some advice... let's see if they follow it.


So... that's why when they kept claiming they'd be magically profitable at 5 million subs. What a load of brown stuff. They MUST find people who rarely go to the movies and just keep paying, or they MUST find other sources of revenue as they promised. Period. Anything more and they're milking shareholders.
icon url

BobDoleYahoo

08/09/18 3:57 PM

#19475 RE: StockItOut #19423

This video link from Bloomberg is great man. Thanks! Mitch gave a little more info in this interview when he said 1.7 at ~$10 was the usage of all the users in May. That gives me something to work on to tweak my numbers. Due to the nature of the calculations/equations involved, the exact numbers and ratios I change here and there affects other numbers in significant way, meaning there's not a lot of right answers. There's only a few right answers, depending on all the variables and what the results should be.

Will mess around with the numbers tonight and repost.
icon url

BobDoleYahoo

08/10/18 3:56 AM

#19891 RE: StockItOut #19423

OK did some more thinking after re-watching this video. Even though Mitch Lowe said it's "cost of goods" they reduced (and SEC filings say it's "monthly deficits"), the ONLY number that matches up with the $40 million monthly deficit in May, $45 million in June and so on mentioned in SEC filings is the Gross Loss figure. If I adjust MP subs to account for various points in time, using the ~1.7 ratio, the Gross Loss matches up with the SEC filings. I think Mitch was just dumbing down the definition.

It's also interesting that it's August, yet Mitch chooses to quote May's ratio of 1.7. Why May??? I believe it's because the ratio was completely different and much larger in April before they stopped MP subs from re-watching the same movie and sharing accounts.