Replies to post #23743 on Short Term Trading Member Forum

[airedale88]

re BA and 9/11. the XAL index bottomed on 6/13, rallied, and then pulled back into the july low, spiking down to a lower low on (maybe) mid east news. it then rallied again, and the pullback into the 9/11 low was a hair above the 6/13 low. i believe XAL's 20 wk low was also 6/13. INDU Trans was below the june low before spiking down into the july low mid east news time frame. it then tested that low on 9/11. BA, XAL, INDU TRANS, all show slightly different patterns, though related in ways.

[slinky]

Aire, Probable answer to the BA anomaly in August comes to mind. You wrote:

"even that can't be the cause for BA, which did not bottom until sept. was it some unknown fundamental, or maybe cycles just don't work and all this is bullshit. BA bottomed on sept 11 and rallied strong after that date. 9/11. after making a june low, BA, one of the leaders in the INDU rallies, pulls back in july as mid east tension flares up, rallies with the market again but then fails and sell straight down to sept 11 and reverses by the end of that day and rallies for 4 weeks."

Well, I was travelling in August and missed by one day the August 10 breaking news of the airplane/liquid threat. Immediately following were widespread reports of certain decline in air travel, especially short hops where it was thought travelers might just switch over to driving or trains. Note the June lows in BA were not penetrated till August 10, the day the news broke, and I believe led to a 4 wk cycle straddle due to the fear of decreased air travel demand, that ended Sept 11 with the general mrkt 2.5wk low. The "slingshot" rally from Sept 11 was the undoing of the earlier fears. Also aiding the rebound was the Sept 25 announcement of the easing of the liquid restriction on airlines, which the market may have known about as early as Sept 11 area.

Without this cycle straddle, BA may have been in a months long consolidation period after the steady climb from March 03.



Slinky

ps "or maybe cycles just don't work and all this is bullshit"

LOL, I'm surprised your fingers were able to even type that segment out....

[chris3403]

airedale88 In no way do I feel Hurst is B/S!
However two different individuals can look at the same data and draw two different conclusions.
In Aug of this year I spent a week in Granite Bay California regretfully I didn’t realize it until late Sep that I was less than 10 miles from where Mr. Hurst lived. Since 1978 I have made 6 different trips out there most recently in 2000 and again in 2004 before he died.
chris

[Myself °¿°]

lol I guess I'm lost in the; phasing Boeing...

check replies #msg-14025559

Any chance I could get a Readers Digest version of that post?

Thanks:)