Repost: Implied WMIH PPS is $1.93, why trading @ $1.39
The implied PPS of WMIH is $1.93 in my opinion. If you look at the NSM 8-K from 03/07/2018 at page 12, you can see a "pro forma" tangible book value of $2,160 millions of NSM (with the added "value" of WMIH and its NOLs), or an accretion of 51%.
And page 10 shows the share structure post-merger, resulting in 1,117 millions of WMIH commons.
So I think it is safe to say the PPS should be at least $2,160 / 1,117 = $1.93 post-merger, not factoring in any growth in the next years, just tangible book value / outstanding shares
You can also divide the $24.71 of "pro-forma" NSM PPS on page 12 by the exchange factor 12.7793 with the same result of $1.93
Is the calculation correct?
All other opinions/corrections are welcome!
Your post:
You take known maximum values to calculate for dilutive effects (worst case dilution). To simplify, you will find share price post merger. ---------------------------
If anyone actually read they would find that WMIH Board has already hired someone to find out the value range. At current pps $1.48 (as of this post), the stock is possibly undervalued.
KBW performed a net present value analysis of WMIH’s net operating loss carry-forward to estimate a range for the implied equity value of WMIH. KBW used valuation assumptions regarding the potential future utilization of WMIH’s net operating loss carry-forward provided by WMIH management (which were based on an assumed tax rate and assumptions regarding the future taxable income that WMIH could generate after a hypothetical acquisition with the same characteristics as the merger, using the financial and operating forecasts and projections of Nationstar with respect to fiscal years 2018 through 2021 prepared by Nationstar management and assumed Nationstar growth rates provided by WMIH management), and KBW assumed discount rates ranging from 10.0% to 16.0%. A range for the implied equity value of WMIH was derived by adding (i) the present value of the tax savings that WMIH could generate from future utilization of WMIH’s net operating loss carry-forward over the period from October 1, 2018 to December 31, 2029, and (ii) WMIH’s estimated total net cash as provided by WMIH management. KBW did not take into account the value attributable to WM Mortgage Reinsurance Company, Inc. Based on adjusted diluted share data of WMIH giving effect to WMIH’s estimates and assumptions regarding the WMIH Preferred Stock Transactions and warrant exchange provided by WMIH management, this analysis resulted in a range of implied values per share of WMIH common stock of $1.58 per share to $1.83 per share, a range of implied values of the aggregate stock consideration of $635 million to $735 million and a range of implied values of the aggregate merger consideration in the merger of $1,861 million to $1,961 million.
edited - to add first part of the paragraph in quotation.