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Re: None

Friday, 03/16/2018 12:05:50 PM

Friday, March 16, 2018 12:05:50 PM

Post# of 730540
Repost: Implied WMIH PPS is $1.93, why trading @ $1.39

The implied PPS of WMIH is $1.93 in my opinion. If you look at the NSM 8-K from 03/07/2018 at page 12, you can see a "pro forma" tangible book value of $2,160 millions of NSM (with the added "value" of WMIH and its NOLs), or an accretion of 51%.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1520566/000119312518072479/d492124dex991.htm

And page 10 shows the share structure post-merger, resulting in 1,117 millions of WMIH commons.

So I think it is safe to say the PPS should be at least $2,160 / 1,117 = $1.93 post-merger, not factoring in any growth in the next years, just tangible book value / outstanding shares

You can also divide the $24.71 of "pro-forma" NSM PPS on page 12 by the exchange factor 12.7793 with the same result of $1.93

Is the calculation correct?

All other opinions/corrections are welcome!

No investment advice!

Seeking Alpha sees a value of at least $1.75

From an older Seeking Alpha article from 02/14/2018 directly after the M&A news:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4146690-buy-nationstar-mortgage-holdings-upside-25-percent-downside-due-deal-wmih

[...]
The acquisition presentation (Acquisition Presentation) lays out a total consideration of $19.38 (at an effective 32% stock, 68% cash mix). The stock component is therefore worth $19.38 - $12.24 = $7.14. The implied WMIH share price is $7.14 / (32% * 12.7793) = $1.75.
[...]
WMIH has certainly closed a solid deal. Fortress has agreed to value WMIH at $1.75 per share the moment it agreed to swap its shares in NSM for cash and stock. WMIH is now instead trading at $1.28. This gap already provides an immediate intuitive potential upside





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