Replies to post #1140 on GTC Biotherapeutics (fka GTCB)

[10nisman]

Cesrph09 "Absurdly cheap"...

Where are you getting a value of $84 million and 84 cents a share? The market current values GTCB at $1.17 x 107 million shares (fully diluted) or roughly $125 million, as Dew mentioned in a previous post.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that GTCB will either be trading at a stock price higher than $2 within 365 days or it will be acquired for more than $2 in the same period. The company is sitting on too much value for management or the street to understate it for to long, IMO.

I wonder what the stock price would do if the company issued a PR saying they've hired an investment bank to review strategic alternatives. It may just be worth spending a million on investment banking fees to increase the market cap by 50+%.

10nis

[DewDiligence]

>By the 1st of the year… they will probably only have 38 million in cash, which will probably make further dilution a necessity by end of 2007, unless ATryn sells unexpectedly well.<

For 2007, what’s more important than the royalties from sales of ATryn in HD (which are apt to be small) is whether GTC can ink some Merrimack-like production deals that bring in up-front licensing fees and milestones. If they can, another financing transaction in 2007 may not be necessary.

>With all the new shares, I see GTCB having a PPS of around 84 cents…<

I’ll be astonished if the share price reaches a level that low. I’d say that has less than a 2% chance of happening.

[cesrph09]

Repost on my thoughts on where pps is headed:

Posted by: cesrph09
In reply to: DewDiligence who wrote msg# 1127 Date:10/7/2006 3:15:21 PM
Post #of 1684

Yes on second look at the numbers, GTCB is not that "absurdly cheap." When I look at the numbers more closely, actually using a pen and paper and doing some simple math, I think they gave away too much for too little. By the 1st of the year, with the money from the financing in august, now this diliution + burning 9 million a qtr, they will probably only have 38 million in cash, which will probably make further dilution a necessity by end of 2007, unless ATryn sells unexpectedly well. Today, company is valued at 84 million. I think with the addition of shares, even with the cash, by the 1st of jan I see the company valued at 100 million. With all the new shares, I see GTCB having a PPS of around 84 cents minus any further deals, hopefully mor equitable than this one. Thinking about it some more, given that it will take a minimum of seven years to get factor VIIa to mkt, It seems kind of unrealistic to expect GTCB to foot half of the bill. I doubt GTCB will end up seeing 50% of the revenue on this product. If gtcb Goes under a buck I will surely add more, but until then I will hold my meager position. Thank you for slapping me in the face and making me be more realistic on the valuation. Please correct any of my math. As I am sure it is obvious that I am not great with numbers, but I can still spot a great opportunity like GTCB, it is just going to require A LOT of PATIENCE.


"It is what it is."