GTC Biotherapeutics (fka GTCB)

[cesrph09]

Repost on my thoughts on where pps is headed:

Posted by: cesrph09
In reply to: DewDiligence who wrote msg# 1127 Date:10/7/2006 3:15:21 PM
Post #of 1684

Yes on second look at the numbers, GTCB is not that "absurdly cheap." When I look at the numbers more closely, actually using a pen and paper and doing some simple math, I think they gave away too much for too little. By the 1st of the year, with the money from the financing in august, now this diliution + burning 9 million a qtr, they will probably only have 38 million in cash, which will probably make further dilution a necessity by end of 2007, unless ATryn sells unexpectedly well. Today, company is valued at 84 million. I think with the addition of shares, even with the cash, by the 1st of jan I see the company valued at 100 million. With all the new shares, I see GTCB having a PPS of around 84 cents minus any further deals, hopefully mor equitable than this one. Thinking about it some more, given that it will take a minimum of seven years to get factor VIIa to mkt, It seems kind of unrealistic to expect GTCB to foot half of the bill. I doubt GTCB will end up seeing 50% of the revenue on this product. If gtcb Goes under a buck I will surely add more, but until then I will hold my meager position. Thank you for slapping me in the face and making me be more realistic on the valuation. Please correct any of my math. As I am sure it is obvious that I am not great with numbers, but I can still spot a great opportunity like GTCB, it is just going to require A LOT of PATIENCE.


"It is what it is."