Replies to post #158113 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[antihama]

And what about his thoughts on market cap.

The upside in the stock is enormous in the event that the market comes to agree with me and distinguished key opinion leaders involved in the phase 3 trial about the potential for a meaningful long term survival tail in GBM. Based on my analysis of market valuations of other oncology focused companies, I believe that if the investor perception arises that DCVax-L has a reasonable chance to gain approval and has the potential to become a meaningful therapeutic advance in the treatment of glioblastoma, this could result in perhaps a $5 billion market valuation at some point. Please note that I am basing this on the perception. If indeed, DCVax-L is approved for newly diagnosed GBM, I think the valuation could be meaningfully higher. It is also intriguing to note that the mechanism of action of DCVax-L is not unique for targeting GBM. Hypothetically, it might also have efficacy against a broad number of other solid tumors.

There is a lot of guesswork in this and I would strongly urge you to not take this estimate of potential market capitalization as being carved in stone. Also, this would not be over night. So how do I get to this $5 billion market capitalization? Puma is poised to launch neratinib into a segment of the highly competitive breast cancer market. I view this opportunity as being smaller than that for DCVax-L if it is approved in GBM. Puma sells at a market capitalization of $2.3 billion. The CAR-T companies Kite and Juno were acquired at valuations of $12 billion and $9 billion respectively. So far the opportunity for these products is in relapsed/ refractory hematological cancers and arguably the commercial potential is not much different from DCVax-L in GBM. One notable difference is that three companies-Kite, Juno and Novartis- are going after this market with what seems to be undifferentiated products.

Right now, the fully diluted share count for NWBO is somewhere around 850 million. It is probable that NWBO will have to issue more shares over the next year although how many and at what price is difficult to estimate. For the sake of illustration let’s assume that NWBO issues 350 million more shares at $0.33 to bring in about $100 million. This would result in 1.2 billion shares outstanding and with a $5 billion market valuation the resultant share price would be $4.15 at some point in the next year or so.

I have to emphasize that that there is no assurance of this upside case and there remain scenarios in which an investor could lose all or most of his money. Nevertheless, the reward/ risk is extraordinary in this stock in my opinion. This is why I have devoted so much time to research on NWBO.