Replies to post #146404 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[TJ Parker]

It's always after the fact rationalizing, never before the fact prognostication.

this is completely false. in fact, its the reason that i actually give some credence to mlsoft's theories. and, even though he argued with me on 'scientific theory' last weekend, his theory stands up: he's given precise information on when you should see intervention (to stem a selloff that could cascade) and where to look (intc and other stocks that get jammed by buying that appear intent not on buying for a good price, but buying to raise the price). that's predictive enought for me. in fact, up until march, there were other verifiable criteria as well: after the nikkei closed they'd jam up the dollar, push down gold and jam the futures; that would be followed by a gap up day that continued to trend up.

anyway, the question really gets turned around, i think. the market does believe in a 'greenspan put'. at this point in time, how else could he implement it? he can't really credibly do it through lowering rates or otherwise through the bond market, since he has no credibility there. and the market behavior that we're seeing is consistent with believing that there is such a put: buy an sufficiently broad basket of crap at any price, because there's a floor there.

to me,though: if there were large scale manipulation, i'd think it more likely that it was hatched out of the white house. the fed would be helpless to do anything but support it (that put again) since the alternative would be disasterous.

[urmygold1]

alan greenspan does not actually buy any stock... he just makes the paper money so cheap that it is truely worthless paper{g} ordinary americans are once again investing money in the markets...gold...silver...gas...stocks...joe 6 pack has refinanced his fathers motgage,his mortgage and his childrens mortgage!

i agree with you that most post need to be more trading oriented than opinion on "who done it?"
id love to see zeev tell us the support buy points he uses on his purchases and how he moves these up and down with the markets(in advance)...the man seems to be very good! ;O) URMY!

[Zeev Hed]

Come on, Market Watcher, there are maybe 3 to 5 people on the thread that hold the theory of frequent Fed intervention in the markets, out of about, 1300 that have bookmarked this thread and probably some 100 plus relatively active posters. That is not that much. Following the liquidity (through repos), is actually healthy, even though, on a short term basis, the predictive value is non important, presence of such liquidity is on important drive in rising prices. Actually in recent month the rate of growth of MZM has slowed down, t it is another parameter that should show as a negative amongst all the various factors involved in the market. However, that "parameter", is a a slow process, for about a year prior to the February 2000 peak, we also had contraction in M3 rate of growth, but it took some time, and the soaking action of treasury through an excessive budget surplus to bring the market down.