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Babylon

08/28/03 7:43 PM

#145852 RE: Zeev Hed #145835

I think what's basically being said is that the Turnips have been looking for the biggest moves to be down not up...esp since the March 1250+/- lows. I remember distincly they were still quite bearish due to the internals at that time also. I'm not sure how those same measurements compare with todays figures though.

Just another quick observation is that your calls were nearly spot on during the bear market from '00-most of '02 when cautioning for the sharp swoons and suggesting to load up for the run ups which almost always materialized. Their signals provided great results during contraction, less then stellar results during economic expansion (since October). I'm not saying this is a secular bull market, but I think the price lows on the Nasdaq need to be entertained as a strong possibility of being it, as the market works through a few business cycles (years) to catch up to a realistic multiple that can have a base built upon it for a more sustained secular move.

Anyway, the economic cyclicality is something I wanted to bring up as another possibility that may be going "below the radar" causing lack of harmony with expectations and results. It's hard to argue that this isn't at least a cyclical bull move now, which I think is the real first taste of since the big bear began. It's easy to look back now for me to say it but, once the market broke the bears TA, it should've been obvious a large countertrend move lay ahead.






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dave_s

08/28/03 9:36 PM

#145877 RE: Zeev Hed #145835

>>> Right now, I see more dangers and more exuberance than I saw in February of 2000 when I warned of a major fall <<<

The call in Feb of 2000 was brilliant.

The fall from the top by NASDAQ was from 5000 to 1100.

Are you saying you see a fall on the order of 80% from the top here around 1800 on NAZ?

Thanks in Advance