Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Zeev Hed]

Well, I have not remained bearish all that times in 2003, from time to time I get bouts of irrational exuberance and get down even under 10% cash (the most recent was at 1640 before this last run started). I am not going to catch all the inter moves in this secular bear market, I am quite happy to have caught the majority of the up moves during this whole bear. Got in the late May 2000 low and getting out on time in that autumn and jump back fully loaded for a month late in Dec 2000 (there is a post on January 3, 2001 just hours before the fed first cut announcing "fully loaded" and then warning get out no later than 1:30 on January 31st...). Repeated the same with the April 2001 to late May 2001 frolick, not being hurt by 9/11 but jumping in full by late Sep 2001. 2002 was similar with few missteps, in during July, out by 8/22 (a major to the hills call) and back in in late October. So, 2003 is not that great, I don't know how to call all the turns, do you? Right now, I see more dangers and more exuberance than I saw in February of 2000 when I warned of a major fall, so I'll be satisfied going to bed between 60% to 70% cash until I see these dangers abating (right now, as per plan, cash at 68%). This with lunch tactics ranging from deploying as little as 15% to as much as 40% is quite satisfactory for me.