Replies to post #206655 on Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[BioTechMaven]

My take is the interim was SO good, but a small population. Also, severe chemo patients are a difficult subject group (ie anything can happen that is in gods hands). My take alone is: a trial pass (not fail) with a clear and evident spread between the arms (ie that clearly shows the drug works and has helped a high enough percentage of the population to be meaningful)—and in this case you can draw comps from other om trials. Worth noting how HiGH of a bar ipix set in trial design: prevention and duration—almost unheard of by other pharmas confronting. Ipix has big balls. I’m on the edge of my seat to see how the trial unfolds.

[BioHedge]

If we see the same results as the interim, it would be an absolute moon shot result. And in my opinion, there is almost no way the numbers hold, to those levels, in a larger data set. I've always learned to temper my expectations in life and even more so in bio-tech investing. But, the great thing with B-OM is that there is no current effective treatment (bad for patients good for IPIX's new offering).

Overcoming the placebo effect is hard (look at the silence around Prurisol - had the numbers been coming in crazy good, we'd have heard rumblings). Take Otezla, there was a lot of board chatter that talked about how narrowly Otezla beat the placebo (like 10-15% or so if I remember correctly) but look at the revenues it's generated. I think the same can happen for B-OM.

We don't need to hit a grand-slam for this to be worth significant $$$. We just need it to work in a statistically meaningful way. As long as we get a decent spread from the placebo arm, we're golden.