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DaubersUP

12/07/17 11:02 AM

#206663 RE: BioHedge #206662

Plus....iPIX is done with phase 2. While the only other competitor out there with the same preventative primary outcome will start dosing their phase 2 next year.

We are a couple years ahead and they are just starting a phase 2 on a hunch the drug should work in OM from the MOA on a separate indication.
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BioTechMaven

12/07/17 11:05 AM

#206665 RE: BioHedge #206662

A Prurisol release that follows that rivals Otezla, and IPIX at $15-20 overnight...
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MinnieM

12/07/17 12:20 PM

#206708 RE: BioHedge #206662

Oral mucositis (OM) doesn't wax and wane like psoriasis does. I don't expect placebo effect to have much play in the Brilacidin ph2 OM trial.

I do agree with the concept of tempering ones' expectations in biotech investing. One never really knows what will show up in trial results. But, I'm expecting this trial to come up with good results.






In Reply to 'BioHedge'
If we see the same results as the interim, it would be an absolute moon shot result. And in my opinion, there is almost no way the numbers hold, to those levels, in a larger data set. I've always learned to temper my expectations in life and even more so in bio-tech investing. But, the great thing with B-OM is that there is no current effective treatment (bad for patients good for IPIX's new offering).

Overcoming the placebo effect is hard (look at the silence around Prurisol - had the numbers been coming in crazy good, we'd have heard rumblings). Take Otezla, there was a lot of board chatter that talked about how narrowly Otezla beat the placebo (like 10-15% or so if I remember correctly) but look at the revenues it's generated. I think the same can happen for B-OM.

We don't need to hit a grand-slam for this to be worth significant $$$. We just need it to work in a statistically meaningful way. As long as we get a decent spread from the placebo arm, we're golden.



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sox040713

12/07/17 1:02 PM

#206721 RE: BioHedge #206662

BioHedge, it’s always good to see you posting again. Actually it’s not unrealistic for me to see 7 out of every 9 patients in the B arm don’t have severe OM and the % ends up with over 70%. Even if B-OM is 50% effective in the remaining patients in the B arm, you are looking at ~58% severe OM prevention.

Due to its very low systemic absorption of < 10 ng/mL, B-OM’s concentration can be tweaked from 3 mg/mL to further increase its efficacy without safety concerns. Either way, we have a very good home run hitter (Stanton?) in our lineup.
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steppe

12/11/17 8:33 AM

#207219 RE: BioHedge #206662

Your analysis was spot on Bio!