A quick look at the 8-, 20- and 50dma's combined with the totally unexciting volume profile (despite "news") leads me to believe that the percentage play here is down between now and the end of January. I'm holding a bit of the stock right now. I've been wrong plenty of times, but I won't stay wrong with this.
Agree with you on the move part. The trend is down so a move down to the 200 ma is reasonable. I do notice the short cycle and when they are this apparent it signals a move is coming. The narrative for the stock is one thing and the technical is another. Right now the narrative is focused on trial start and that is uncertain. The big boys view this as fun and games time as there is no blockbuster event for at least 3 months from trial start. Tax loss selling and rebalancing come into play at this time of year so down is the most likely. A nice flush would be welcome.