Brilacidin certainly does look compelling. It’s what keeps me holding since it’s as close to a sure thing that one can get in high risk biotech.
Regarding the dilution, I’m ok with it because it hasn't been excessive and we’ve made good progress with trials along with purchasing the PolyMedix assets. All of this was done without an r/s.
There’s no doubt that the Kevetrin ph1 was a slow one. But, I think that they were forced to start out at low dosages for several reasons. First of all, the poor safety history of previous p53 drugs had to give the FDA pause when looking at approving this trial. The patients were stage 4 cancer patients and needed to be treated with care. Approval was needed before progressing from one cohort to the next.
Then, you had competing oncology trials at Dana Farber. It was surprisingly slow in recruiting. As a matter of fact, this experience of competing trials is likely the reason that the company decided against running the Brilacidin ph2 Oral Mucositis trial at MD Anderson. They’d already been burnt with slow recruitment at a location with competing trials. The relationship between Dr Fried and Dr Menon is likely the primary reason Kevetrin ended up at Dana Farber.
A Prurisol trial was set to start and canceled due to the purchase of the Brilacidin assets. I suspect that they put it on hold until they had a chance to see what direction they wanted to move in after this asset purchase. They likely had an idea of tweaking Brilacidin for lower dosages but, probably had no idea what it would actually cost until playing with it in hand for a bit.
The Prurisol ph2a psoriasis trial completed ahead of schedule. The only mistake I see that Leo made here was building expectation of an interim and then deciding against it. They reasoning may have been sound, but, it was poorly communicated.
But, as I’ve always said, I don’t always agree with his communication style. Management isn’t perfect, but, they’ve done a great job moving forward with trials under less than optimal circumstances.
I still believe we’d be much further ahead with the science and more patients would have been dosed by now if it weren’t for being slammed with the distorted hit pieces in 2015.
Look at the chart while viewing the following dates:
1.2.15 Sharvey
1.23.15 Bleecker
2.6.15 Bleecker
8.6.15 Mako followed by Rosen lawsuit based on this attack. Suit was dismissed, but, not until 2016. By then, the damage was done. And, being from Wall Street as you say in another post, you should understand this game. Perception is more important than reality at times. The name became mud.
As price went down it was more dilutive to raise capital. Uplist was derailed. But, more importantly, these delays may have hurt potential patients. I believe these attacks contributed to a high degree in the Brilacidin ph3 ABSSSI delay. Some things still are all about money.
I don't see a major break to upside in price until a partner is onboard. And, having met both Dr Menon and Leo twice now, I have to believe them when they say they are actively seeking a partner at this point. Plus, the SEC filings state they have confidentiality agreements signed. I doubt they'd lie in a filing to the SEC. I'm just glad they have progressed the trials far enough to do so.
Anyway, good luck with your new purchase.
In Reply to 'sixmilliondollarbios'
Question for the board..
Brilacidin for OM looks compelling and I have taken a position for topline. Beyond that, a quick look at 10K's from 2012-17 show almost 50% dilution and very little pipeline progress for it. Kevetrin has essentially taken 5+ years to get move from IND to P2a. Prurisol hasn't progressed much better. Anyone care to address this red flag?
Disclosure: I was quite familiar with CTIX, in and out numerous times going back to 2012-15. Since then I have occasionally glanced at the ticker. Needless too say I have not been impressed with the progress here.
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