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HDGabor

10/28/17 9:46 AM

#117002 RE: rafunrafun #117000

r-

You cannot tell that he is no Rembrandt, based on the outcome of nearly all his predictions?

No I could not, since I do not know that his TA technique was wrong or right.

Meanwhile I decided to EOS with you about this ... your example is excellent (I looking for it).

If a meteorologist makes 100 forecasts and 90 of them turn out to be false, I don't need to be an expert in meteorology to conclude that he is a sh*tty meteorologis and that no one should take him this seriously?

Weather is like TA ... Based on historical data a prediction could be made about the upcoming weather, however the World No. 1 meteorologist could be wrong (constantly) ... his forecast could be wrong independently from his perfect technique, deep and correct analysis of historical data, etc., but it won't mean he is a sh*tty meteorologis. You could say this if you could say based on the historical data the forecast was different.

Best,
G