HCV world-wide sales for 1Q17, 2Q17, 3Q17, 4Q17and all of 2107 and 2016:
--------1Q17-------/------2Q17--------/------3Q17------/------4Q17------/-------2017-------/------2016-------
GILD -2,576 - 76.2% / 2,868 - 77.1% / 2,197 - 72.9% / 1,498 - 63.4% / 9,137 - 73.2% / 14,834 - 79.77%
BMY - 162 - 6.3% / 112 - 3.0% / 73 - 2.4% / 59 - 2.5% / 406 - 3.3% / 1,578 - 8.49%
ABBV - 263 - 7.8% / 225 - 6.0% / 276 - 9.2% / 510 - 21.6% / 1,274 - 10.2% / 1,522 - 8.30%
MRK - 378 - 14.7% / 517 - 13.9% / 468 - 15.5% / 296 - 12.5% / 1,660 - 13.3% / 555 - 2.98%
TOTAL - 3,379 / 3,722 / 3,014 / 2,361/ 12,477 / 18,595
Overall market revenue down 33% YOY, and guidance is for another 40 -50% decline in '18. Average price for GILD new patient went from $38K+ to $26K- in US from Q3 to Q4. I assume ABBV net pricing is even lower. GILD guidance is for ~10% drop in patient starts in '18 (seems overly optimistic to me), but for its HCV revenue to drop 55-60%. I look for total market to be ~$7.5-8.0B in '18, but that is higher than companies' guidance. Current run rate is ~$9.45B, but total scripts are falling from last quarter. ABBV taking significant NRx market share, but duration will limit TRx market share. BMY should disappear by end of '18, but MRK will have something (but not much). Companies (GILD and ABBV) talk about end of price competition, but we really don't know where the bottom is - EU seems to be paying about $17K for each new patient, according to GILD. GILD being up today was a surprise to me. May be HIV prospects. Is clearly more of a HIV story than it has been for the last ~5 years - market share went up in recent quarters.
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