Biotech Values

[Rocky3]

HCV world-wide sales for 1Q17, 2Q17, 3Q17, and all of 2016:

--------1Q17-------/------2Q17--------/------3Q17------/------2016-------
GILD -2,576 - 76.2% / 2,868 - 77.1% / 2,197 - 72.9% / 14,834 - 79.77%
BMY - 162 - 6.3% / 112 - 3.0% / 73 - 2.4% / 1,578 - 8.49%
ABBV - 263 - 7.8% / 225 - 6.0% / 276 - 9.2% / 1,522 - 8.30%
MRK - 378 - 14.7% / 517 - 13.9% / 468 - 15.5% / 555 - 2.98%


TOTAL - 3,379 / 3,722 / 3,014 / 18,595

HCV WW market now at $12.06 run-rate with big time drop from Q2. Overall script numbers for first three weeks of Q4 in US have held up, but pricing has probably dropped significantly. With GILD guidance for huge drop of revenue in Q4, I would not be surprised to see WW HCV revenue drop to ~2.5B, or run rate of $10B/yr. So big issues are continued pricing competition and overall market expansion/contraction. Script trends have been down for a long time and I expect them to resume downward trend sooner than later.

JMO.