Replies to post #127971 on DD Support Board and Research Team

[Sleepy2016]

You know a good way to launder millions of dollars? Casinos.

[bar1080]

That $5 million figure shows up in a couple of articles about Paddock from a few days ago but always attributed to one source at NBC. I'm guessing that might have been his gross receipts as a professional gambler but not his net profit, which might be a loss even.

I'd call that story unreliable. We do know that Paddock was a mighty energetic gambler.

[DrContango]

As I understand it, a "skilled" video poker player may do better than a novice, but still it's a machine, and it's programmed to make sure the house wins most of the time.

Brother Eric Paddock explains that his brother on average may have broken even but he lived in style in Vegas with free luxury suites and fine dining...

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/04/us/stephen-paddock-gambling.html

The top machines at Mandalay Bay pay out 99.17 percent, or $99.17 for every $100 wagered, according to Mr. Curtis. If Mr. Paddock did wind up a net loser, those losses could be offset, in part, by comps, or “kickback rewards,” essentially free money casinos give loyal customers to gamble with. The more that players play, the more they earn in comps. And casinos offer an ever-changing menu of promotions that can cut the expected losses a fraction further.

“If you get close to 100 percent — that’s where he gambled,” Eric Paddock said. “It’s not just the machine. It’s the comps, it’s the room. It’s the 50-year-old port that costs $500 a glass. You add all that stuff together and his net is bette

Doc

[Triple9]

As I understand it, a "skilled" video poker player may do better than a novice, but still it's a machine, and it's programmed to make sure the house wins most of the time. Paddock evidently kept elaborate calculations telling him when specific machines had last paid out bigtime. But at least in 2015, he made a lot of money on that. How? Granted, he spent a lot of his time in casinos. But still, is that unusual?

One of the wealthiest people I personally know goes to Vegas every year, sometimes several times a year, because he's incredibly frugal and he gets a free vacation. He just has to give the casino enough action and he gets comped for the entire trip.

This can be done if you play perfect strategy in blackjack, bet on don't pass in craps, bet on bank in mini-baccarat, and if you play perfect strategy in video poker. The house edge is almost nil in these situations, so as long as you have the bankroll to handle swings, you are getting free food, drinks, rooms, shows, even free flights.

Most people don't play perfect strategy in video poker because it's counter intuitive. Say you get king of hearts, queen of hearts, jack of hearts, ten of spades and ten of diamonds. 99% of people drop the hearts and keep the pair as it's a guaranteed payout. Wrong, you want to go for the royal straight flush in hearts.

[integral]

In tears today. Anyone in Boston, go see my friend Dan Kosta at Legal.

https://www.legalseafoods.com/about-really-fresh-fish/events/kosta-browne-wine-dinner-464

Kosta Browne doesn't own vineyards, just grape purchase agreements. What a disaster. My daughter took pics from her college and even though she is 100 miles south towards the bay, the air looks like a bomb just dropped.

Many of my friends vineyards, gone. Gone. I know people buy bottles at the store, but people don't understand, owners get their hands in the dirt, meet the buyers, it is a hands on biz. Oh geez this hurts. Wine is art.