HappyLibrarian,
Did you happen to look at the enrollment curve for DCVax-L that sentiment_stocks posted? Did you happen to see the analysis by alphapuppy? Did you look at flipper44's projected OS numbers? If you have then you know that the tools made available to us paint a very nice picture of improved benefit being seen by treatment patients. The combined cohort of the last 100 patients is seeing a 25-26 month MOS as a minimum. How do I get this? Well you just go to the 70% enrollment mark which equals .7 ×331=231.7 patients enrolled which is close enough to 231 to be used as an approximation. Then look on the graph sentiment_stocks shared and 70% enrollment happens around mid November 2014. So 100 patients were enrolled from 11-2014 up to 10-2015. Let's use early May 2015 as the midpoint of this time frame. Early May 2015 to early June 2017 is the combined 25 months median OS for this part of the trial and this is worst case as alphapuppy made referrence to. This worst case because if there does not exist a 2 to 1 ratio of treatment to SOC but rather a higher ratio of treatment to SOC, which is very likely, then the MOS for treatment rises accordingly. Now why is it very likely that there is a higher ratio of treatment to SOC left in this group? There are 2 very good reasons. The first is the most obvious and that is Dr. Bosch said events were taking longer than anticipated which points to a longer tail from treatment than anticipated. The other reason is the event rate itself which Dr. Bosch disclosed which is about 2 per month. About 9 patients per month were enrolled for the time between 11/2014-10/2015. Dr. Linda Liau said that MOS had been approaching 24 months in many cases so if this was the case in this trial then from the midpoint of enrollment of these last 100 patients, ~May 2015, until May 2017, 24 months, we should have witnessed 50 OS events from this group and yet we still have all 100 patients from this set of patients alive as of early June 2017. The explanation for this is obvious. Patients are living longer on treatment. You would need to go all the way back to about September 2014 to find the starting point for the last 200 patients enrolled which would put the midpoint of enrollment at about March 2015 which puts combined MOS (3/2015-6/2017) at ~27 months. Now how do you like them apples. Do you find this "interesting" as Dr. Bosch has said? By the way, companies don't like to share their enrollment data if they have something to hide. This data would have been analyzed overnight and the price tank 50% if NWBO's enrollment data looked bad. VICL was a perfect example of not sharing what they had. Best wishes.
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