Replies to post #296832 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

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coporal, now that is an interesting and constructive question.

So in 12 months they become profitable and then start building down on the 500Mil$. To do that they must have 500Mil$ of profits which will leave them with about 165Mil$ cash out of that.

But 500Mil$ profits, how long will that take ?

Well I am sure RRDog would have given a MUCH better answer then me but let me try.

To make profits (we are at losses between 0.07 and 0.03$ per share now) we need to increase revenue. So if in 12 months we are going to make profits then we AT LEAST break even.

So 300 Mil outstanding shares and lets take 0.05$ revenue increase (average of or quarterly losses) * 4 =0.20$. So 0.20$ increase in revenue per share is what we need for PPHM to announce break even on the YEAR (PPHM TALKS IN FY).

So PPHM has an outlook on 60Mil$ revenue increase between NOW and BREAK EVEN.

So the question is now:
A) what will the reduced burn rate be when Sunrise is completely out of the picture and if we run clinical trials through NCCN, MSK, or with large cost carrying by AstraZeneca or others (Durvalumab for free if these trials come about).

Whet will the revenue of AVid III be. The Avid III profit in that scenario will be 100% pre-tax profits.

And any pre-payment, milestones and license money or participation in profits of exosomes will ALSO return pre-tax profits.

SO I would not be surprised to see PPHM run a small profit in 2018 of say 10Mil$, then 50Mil$ in 2019 and 100Mil$ in 2020 on AVID PROFITS ALONE.

2018 10Mil$
2019 50Mil$
2020 100Mil$
2021 100Mil$
2022 100Mil$
2023 100Mil$
2024 30Mil$ - leave 70Mil for dividend and accumulated 165Mil$ cash went to the bank.

Now what if a 50 to 250 Mil$ pre-payment would come somewhere in that schedule? Or Janssens also increases its HALO demands? Or Roche starts commercial instead of only clinical trials with the HALO substances?

With a partner and growing Roche demand alone (Roche had identified 8 targets for the substance) I say dividends could become a reality in 2021/2022. AIMO.