rasilez:
>If the combo is better, it certainly is not materially better. In fact, the diastolic BP was worse for the combo treatment<
No argument that the diastolic was worse.
>Moreover, the efficacy of Rasilez in combination with Diovan, specifically, is very important to NVS' CV franchise during the next decade.<
Agreed.
>Again, I’m calling you out here for thinking like an MD/PhD rather than an investor. From a business standpoint, a combo pill has to be superior to its constituents by more than a smidgeon if it is to become a big-selling drug. I would not like to be a sales rep whose best argument is the one you just made.<
The comment was not to suggest that reps could go out and detail a small change in BP without having some MI / mortality data in hand. That obviously won't fly. Rather, I don't think that a small change in BP for a combo over a mono necessarily foreshadows a poor outcome in a trial looking at MI / mortality endpoints.
Bottom line for me is that the rasilez data to date suggest that docs who aren't happy with the BP control they achieve with current medications will have a new drug to try out. This is not an insignificant market. However, these data are clearly insufficient to compel docs into changing their prescribing habits, which is necessary for blockbuster status. So I agree with you that the current dataset aren't screaming financial "blockbuster".
>What led you to sell it?<
Made a good percentage on it, so I sold. I also have some doubts as to what type of revenue growth Speedel will be able to show. It is going to take some years to make rasilez into a blockbuster, and my worry is that speedel will spend much of this royalty in developing their 2nd gen. renin inhibitors, only to try and enter the market and compete against their own product and novartis.
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