Re: Speedel (Rasilez)
>The comment was not to suggest that reps could go out and detail a small change in BP without having some MI / mortality data in hand. That obviously won't fly. Rather, I don't think that a small change in BP for a combo over a mono necessarily foreshadows a poor outcome in a trial looking at MI / mortality endpoints.<
roger
>However, these data are clearly insufficient to compel docs into changing their prescribing habits, which is necessary for blockbuster status. So I agree with you that the current dataset aren't screaming financial "blockbuster".<
Unless NVS still has some rabbits up their sleeve.
>I also have some doubts as to what type of revenue growth Speedel will be able to show. It is going to take some years to make rasilez into a blockbuster, and my worry is that speedel will spend much of this royalty in developing their 2nd gen. renin inhibitors, only to try and enter the market and compete against their own product and novartis.<
A reasonable concern, IMO. Moreover, investors do not have precise knowledge of the royalty rate Speedel stands to make on Rasilez, which makes revenue projections for Speedel especially difficult.
As a longstanding NVS investor, I’ve followed Speedel cursorily as long as anyone here, but I don’t think there is enough disclosure to meet my comfort level. I wonder if some of the people who own Speedel based their purchase in part on the notion that Speedel is a sexy company that would confer some kind of guru status on its purchasers.
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