HCV world-wide sales for 1Q17, 2Q17, and all of 2016:
--------1Q17-------/------2Q17--------/------2016-------
GILD -2,576 - 76.2% / 2,868 - 77.1% / 14,834 - 79.77%
BMY - 162 - 6.3% / 112 - 3.0% / 1,578 - 8.49%
ABBV - 263 - 7.8% / 225 - 6.0% / 1,522 - 8.30%
MRK - 378 - 14.7% / 517 - 13.9% / 555 - 2.98%
TOTAL - 3,379 / 3,722 / 18,595
So HCV WW market now at ~$14.89B run rate and no longer decreasing (at least for the time being). The script numbers for Q3 have not been as good for the first 3 weeks, one of which was a holiday week. Plus some, if not all, of GILD's 11% increase was from one time adjustments. MRK has seen significant growth, but its script numbers have leveled off in late Q2 and Q3.
But there may be some increase from next generation drugs from GILD and ABBV that can be used for failed treatments (though there have not been many of those). Plus BMY says that they will start selling in China this quarter. Maybe, just maybe, WW sales can stay in $12-14B range for at least '17 and maybe drop too much in '18, though if ABBV successful with 8 week treatment (and GILD in the EU), that will reduce revenue by 1/3 for those that would have used 12 week treatment. The biggest issue is possible price competition with new treatments entering market.
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