Biotech Values

[Rocky3]

HCV world-wide sales for 1Q17 and all of 2016:

--------1Q17---------------2016-------
GILD -2,576 - 76.2% - 14,834 - 79.77%
BMY - 162 - 6.3% - 1,578 - 8.49%
ABBV - 263 - 7.8% - 1,522 - 8.30%
MRK - 378 - 14.7% - 555 - 2.98%


TOTAL - 3,379 -- 18,595

So HCV WW market now at ~$13.5B run rate and decreasing quickly. Given GILD's maintained guidance, MRK comments on market future, and ABBV 2nd generation needing only 8 weeks for many patients, seems possible that 1Q18 run rate may be as low $10B. It looks like 2018 market for WW sales may be in the $8B or lower range, with future decreases coming.

Question raised as whether JNJ will continue develop or not, and how much market will be left for GILD and 2nd gen ABBV to fight for. Wildcard is size (and more importantly pricing) of the Chinese market. Also, 2Q17 scripts have stop fall compared to 1Q17, giving some hope that guidance is wrong. TWT.

JMO.