Replies to post #295754 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[swg_tdr]

CP, u r idealistic, I talk pricing

frankly, even in the USA "the want" to know "Yes/or NO" by educated people seems to run into weird psychology -- that you and I would find irrational, so never mind the third world, or $trillions.

so, please re-scan the section where I intentionally spelled out in detail what real people were telling us about Exosome pricing (I used numerical shorthand in the rest of the Exosome arguments, something most here seem to not get into, yet -- my bad).

We have a near-monopoly product (IF WE REALLY HAVE THE GOODS, which with this management is always highly uncertain) and just to have credibility in the market place you do not price it as a give-away, you price it for value unless you are competing against superior or like product.

Never mind that we really are here only as a charitable outfit feeding this needy management, I for once am all in for finally making money for the shareholders :-)

best,
N

PS And bottom line, you need a reasonable price to ramp up volume via advertising and an educational marketing campaign (excepting perhaps the cancer patient's family members). The consumer is ignorant of early detection benefits, of cancer pain, of late stage treatment hospital costs, and even does not enjoy a blood draw.

[swg_tdr]

CP you have to stratify numbers for Exosome

reminds me, in reply to your 2 1/2 markets, been there - done it :-)
(courtesy of the cheynew compilation today)

swg_tdr  
Tuesday, 04/25/17 11:08:10 AM
Re: swg_tdr post# 295706
Post # 295707 of 295714 


1. EXOSOME $67 BILLION SALES WORLDWIDE (END-POINT PRICING) 
Exosome BINARY blood test Base market parameters, Early detection annual & survivor monitor 

Population size/geographical/market characteristics: 

USA 324.3millon (current estimate; and 281.4m, Yr 2000 census) 

stratified ages 35 to 64 years 197.1m (2016 estimate) is the key sector, at 33%, BASE 65.0m (read-outs a year)

age 65 to 74, 18.4m, assume 50% not able or too poor, BASE 9.2 m (Medicare paid) 

cancer patient families @ 3.4m (1.7m new cases, 0.6m deaths/yr), EARLY BASE 3.4million tests 
"add -- follow-up if stable or progression" annual check-up of survivors @ 1.1m 
cancer survivors 1.1 per year times 8 (?), BASE 8.8m (with 3 tests per year, 26m equiv?) 
cancer stats per American Cancer Society, 2017, note-- four major cancers only 

"early trendsetters" IF adequately promoted by partner 
corporate "key management medicals", mandatory, introductory target 2.0million (assumed) 
entertainment sector, entrepreneurs, professional groups, alumni groups, introductory 15.0m (guess) 

E U Europe Population (including 64million of UK) 
508million; ages 35 to 74 at 228million (appx), at 80% compliant, TARGET 182million tests 

cancer patient families (3.7m new cases, 1.9m deaths/yr), BASE 7.4million tests 
per statistica, statistics portal, 2016 
cancer survivors 1.8m per year, times 8 (?), BASE 14.4m (with 3 tests per year, 43m equiv?) 

JAPAN 
127million, ages 35 to 74 at 89m (?), and at 90%, TARGET 80million 

AUSTRALIA, S. KOREA, CANADA 
at 23, 50 and 35million respectively, total 108million, ball park TARGET 65million 

TOTAL ANNUAL TESTS WORLDWIDE 448 MILLION, AT $150 PER, OR $67.2BILLION 
FOR EARLY DETECTION AND SURVIVOR MONITORING 
THE EARLY BASE IN THE USA (trendsetters and cancer families) $3.1 BILLION PER YEAR 

next 
How much of this $67Billion annual ultimate potential will revert to Peregrine? and it will not be astronomical even in this "first in market coupe" preventive early detection and post-treatment monitoring sector 

How might a break-down of a NSCLC patient billings inform us of the current billings for tests in NSCLC sector? And hence, what are the types of diagnostics in the USA Oncology market that could add up to $20billion now and can Exosome displace much, or only supplement within this $107billion total cancer treatment billed maket (no way $200B here) 

Best, 
N 

PS So Peregrine management, peel this market by geography and do the first deal already -- auction by geographic areas, to cut the consumer deal part for preventive early detection now.