Agree. This trial has (at least) two concerns: (1) the dependability and interpretation of the PFS endpoint, and (2) cross-over post progression, which imbalances the control/treatment arms.
PFS endpoints in immunotherapy trials are not as dependable (meaning correlated with OS) as those in more traditional trials, and this is becoming more apparent as the body of completed immunotherapy trials increases. This problem can occur when lymphocytic infiltration results in tumor inflammation (which looks like progression) or (since immune activation is a complex process and often operates with a delay not seen with cytotoxic agents) when new lesions occur prior to the delayed immunotherapy response. See https://academic.oup.com/annonc/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/annonc/mdq048, http://clincancerres.aacrjournals.org/content/15/23/7412.long
So, I don’t think one can be certain of either success of failure with the NW Ph3, but given the market cap, I think it is a screamer. In my investment career, I’ve only had one certainty (see below), but this one is a bit more exciting than most.
----------------
(1) except for one interesting case where the market was pricing a merger ratio that (a) differed from what a company press release indicated and (b) the CFO then confirmed to me that the press release was correct. It was a micro-cap and I bought all I could before over about 30 minutes before the market corrected to the data in the press release.
I already know that the trial is not well designed which is a problem. And as you are saying they also had a useless BSSR to adjust the PFS events which you say are meaningless. Remember that fluffy PR how they were making approval easier?
Perhaps you should have told the company?
Keep moving the goalposts while the SP crashes further. And keep drinking the koolaid. It's mostly water now cause a koolaid pack is more that 14 cents.
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
