BB- "R-I total events are accelerating more events in placebo arm v. less events in treatment arm."
Think about this statement for a minute. If events in the placebo arm accelerate (due to aging), events in the V arm decelerate (due to V's efficacy), what happens to the combination of both? Of course it is not exact science, but in my opinion, these two offset each other. That is what I meant by overall events being approximately the same throughout. Very rough example:
2012 P rate 5.5, V 5.2
2013 P rate 5.6, V 5.0
2014 P rate 5.7, V 4.8
2015 P rate 5.8, V 4.5
2016 P rate 5.9, V 4.3
2017 P rate 6.0, V 4.0
If you look at the numbers above, the composite rate is approximately the same throughout but both arms diverge, as was in JELIS.
From the liimited information that we received, we can make a reasonable assumption that the composite rate has been and is expected to be between 4.7 and 5.1;
967/~20,000
1290/~27000
1612/~32,000
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