MFB - I'm basing 2020 off of Harry Dent's book and when I plan on retiring. Boomers peak spending years fall off dramatically during the next decade (2010-2020) according to his book. Since boomers are the most involved with real estate investment, they are going to get slammed. I would think the bottom of the stock market is probably going to coincide with a bottom in the housing market ... somewhere around 2020. Like all bubbles, it should be a waterfall decline whenever it begins.
Does everyone believe that the boomers are the only ones spending money? Sure they are a huge segment of the population, but the population of the US is growing exponentially.
Government projections of the U.S. population are expected to be 324 million to 354 million by 2020. That seems low as we are currently at 299 million which is 12 million ahead on the same projection table. Point is, another 25 to 50 million folks in the US will have a positive impact on the economy...or at least delay an economic implosion. Heck we may have to bring back the idea of the nuclear family if things don't go well. I really don't think much of Dent's concepts, but I will say that the health care system in this country will likely break in the not so distant future.
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