I don't believe any of it, frankly. It's all a crap shoot, mostly. But if, by chance, the Ph2b data does demonstrate signs of efficacy in severe dementia in some patients that really have no treatment except death (call me crass, call me cold, the death I saw was mine, not yours, and I can speak of it how I may), the share price will soar. The question is: will it soar all the way to Ph3 data? Unlikely.
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