Replies to post #99653 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[rafunrafun]

Chas-

"I believe they will probably make the announcement of event 1290 at the end of the quarter, after they receive their quarterly event data."

Interesting logic, as always. Then the obvious question is: on March 30-1-2016, when they announced 60% onset, was its timing coincidental with quarterly data & actual #967 (and events in queue) reaching right before? Because if # 1290 occurs in mid-January like you say, are they going to wait 2.5 months to announce the onset?

I'm not familiar with quarterly data - I can't imagine them having to wait that long for that. But what JL said earlier also makes sense, that they may want to take their time, accrue more events.

[HDGabor]

c-

after they receive their quarterly event data.

We know that DMC has a quarterly safety review, BUT we do not know how frequently the events were reported ("by the blinded clinical event committee or CEC" ... not by DMC). My guess: it isn't on a quarterly basis ... it is monthly.

Best,
G

[jfmcrr]

Just waiting and seeing what happens is another reasonable way to go.

The calendar has been waterboarded and the individual numbers have been turned against each other and the months are turning state's evidence and demanding WitSec protection. It's like Christmas with a house full of kids; No it is not time yet, today is still Tuesday, it's still January, and at this point, if you tweak that curve even a little in either direction one more time, it'll break and then 1612 will never come.

If it floats your boat, go ahead and determine the exact day of the week in December (plus or minus 28 days) {unless it happens in November or January 2018} [or even February or March} that event 1612 occurs and is reported, (within 3 weeks depending...) plus or minus determining and reporting/publishing the top line numbers and eventually all the data Which someone will be waiting on.

There are more fun things to do than obsess over the indeterminate. Ya really shouldn't spend from now until next year as a practicing disciple of Onan.

Instead, put the effort into figuring out what you will do if the price ramps up into the 80%, falls on a continuation to 100%, and/or rises into the year end. If you are long, will you sit tight? Are you diversified? Would you change that? On a ramp up, would you peel some off and diversify? As 80% and 100% draw closer, would you sell what ya can and double down? Would you consider options? If you are levered with options already, would you consider adding to or replacing with margin? How will you react if the share price spikes big time? Sell and buy back lower or get back in onna dip? Watch it drop 20%? Do you have a plan for 2018 as sales/distribution/promotion changes jerk the share price around? There are a lot of moving parts and some work should be done before the events. What suits you best is your plan. Do you know what it is?

Let the Reduce It events determine the time line (they will on their own anyway) and when to put your plan into operation. And then change up as changing circumstances require. And they will.