Replies to post #207640 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

AMGN/SNY/REGN—Deep insight from RBC analyst:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/judge-rules-against-sanofi-and-regeneron-in-patent-case-1483664141

RBC Capital Markets estimated peak annual sales for Repatha could as much as double to $4 billion globally without competition from its rival.

LOL

[DewDiligence]

Sue Robinson (PCSK9) fallout:

AMGN +4%
SNY -3%
REGN -6%

Either investors think Judge Robinson’s order is likely to be overturned on appeal, or they don’t think PCSK9 drugs will generate the mega-blockbuster sales that some analysts have forecasted (based on positive CVOTs).

[DewDiligence]

Matt Herper’s write-up on AMGN’s injunction against Praluent; note mention of TRCA-INSM precedent, which dates back a decade (#msg-17647337):

http://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2017/01/06/could-amgens-patent-victory-be-bad-for-medicine/#69d6a30965fc

My brief rejoinder:

Thx,Matt.TRCA-INSM is direct precdnt,but their 2 drugs were probably more similar than Repatha/Praluent,so $AMGN injunctn harder2justfy,IMO. https://t.co/VFrIor9p5m

— Roy Friedman (@DewDiligence) January 6, 2017

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[DewDiligence]

AMGN—Repatha shows statsig reduction in CV risk (and non-inferior cognitive function relative to placebo):

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/amgen-announces-repatha-evolocumab-significantly-210000355.html

Amgen (AMGN) today announced that the FOURIER trial evaluating whether Repatha (evolocumab) reduces the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with clinically evident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) met its primary composite endpoint (cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), non-fatal stroke, hospitalization for unstable angina or coronary revascularization) and the key secondary composite endpoint (cardiovascular death, non-fatal MI or non-fatal stroke). No new safety issues were observed.

The EBBINGHAUS cognitive function trial conducted in FOURIER patients also achieved its primary endpoint, demonstrating that Repatha was non-inferior to placebo for the effect on cognitive function.

This is the first PCSK9 CVOT to report data. Full data from both trials mentioned above will be presented at ACC on 3/17/17.

[DewDiligence]

AMGN/SNY/REGN—Appellate Court stays Praluent injunction pending appeal:

https://t.co/yKtIUi1f4H

[DewDiligence]

(REGN/SNY/AMGN)—CAFC lifts Praluent injunction—orders new trial:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-amgen-regeneron-pharms-court/u-s-court-reverses-ban-on-sale-of-sanofi-regeneron-drug-praluent-idUSKBN1CA1PG

REGN is up only 2%; investors are evidently skeptical that being able to Praluent in the US will make much difference.