Replies to post #205958 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Hard to understand how one could do that prior to seeing Abbvie's final phase 3 data.

True, but when have sell-side analysts been known to employ rigorous thinking in their models? :- )

[Rocky3]

30% would be a great source of income for ENTA;
higher (4-5X?) volume of current income in the USA

I would say it could be a close to infinite increase in US volume. ABBV (V-PAK) has basically pulled a JNJ disappearance act in the US. It has either a 1.5% of the market (total HCV market) or 2.5% of of the market (G1 only when considering only Har and Zep as competitors). See http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=2629&mn=9529&pt=msg&mid=16560554 for NRx data.

Since many here thought that it would have have a 10-30% position, I would say that it not only the professional analysts that have a cloudy crystal ball, but all projections have to be suspect - just too many moving parts.

ABBV has maintained a much more significant part of the OUS market, and hopefully will continue to do so as competition increases. But its history in the US has been disappointing. For better or worse, I think that side effects will drive the uptake of all the next generation products. Since the current products have been so effective to date, there will be a significant hesitation to change. But as in most of life, we will live in interesting times.

I continue to be concerned with the size of the overall market. I think the TRx numbers for today are near a low for a non-holiday week in a very long time - almost a year. Although I also think that a "cliff" is probably not the correct term, a 20% annual dollar decline for the foreseeable future (maybe understated if 8 week treatment has >50% of the treatment market), would take the overall market to a $10B run rate or below in '18-'19. Not great for the market players, but very bad for GILD (and MRK and ABBV, which will not have the next generation product on the market until late '17).

As always, JMO.