Replies to post #205961 on Biotech Values

[willyw]

Ow; thanks. (i think) : )

I have been busy and haven't paid attention to weekly prescriptions.

Yes, 2017 may be a rough year for viekira in the USA.
Even Gilead was surprised at the Merck pricing; both they and abbvie were hurt by it.

I do agree that there will be a tendency to stick with what is comfortable and familiar.

A bright light for Abbvie and Enta;
When you look at the total players and # of prescriptions (listed in your link), the Abbvie 2nd gen will be directly competitive or superior to all of them.

So of the total aggregate of prescriptions..... what percentage might Abbvie net?

As you say, it may come down to efficacy, AEs and pricing.

No where to go but up, eh? For Abbvie I mean in the USA.
Abbvie also has a decent share in the world and it should also go up I would think.

Great analysis.
Thanks

[DewDiligence]

Re: Crystal balls

Since many here thought that [Viekira] would have a 10-30% [market share], I would say that it not only the professional analysts that have a cloudy crystal ball, but all projections have to be suspect…

Agreed. Anyone can make a bad projection; my mockery of the Jefferies analyst is because: i) we haven’t yet seen all of ABBV/ENTA’s second-gen data to be reported this weekend; and ii) the analyst used the intentionally vague construct, “out years” (which could signify almost anything beyond 2017).