Hard to understand how one could do that prior to seeing Abbvies final phase 3 data (or know what the future is for MRK and JNJ programs in development)
If the G/P data (2nd gen) is good, 30% could be low.
Regardless, if it were correct, that would be a big deal to ENTA; a huge increase. (I understand that Jefferies isn't saying ABBvie will get all that- it will be interesting to see the market share. )
It would probably assure upper tiers to be hit.
The actual tiers could be lower since they were set before Gilead priced Sovaldi at 84K.
The tiers could be similar on these currently much lower prescription prices causing investors much upset.
30% would be a great source of income for ENTA;
higher (4-5X?) volume of current income in the USA
50% royalty rate, instead of lower current rate
and possibly 8 week treatments could mean more prescriptions per year, so the royalty tiers after approval could be very good annual income.
It remains to be seen.
Abbvie 2nd gen could be close to Epclusa in G-1 and 3; what if it were marginally better?
What role will Merck or JNJ play in the future?
Oops; ENTA just hit 27.00; closing in on a 6 month high.
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