Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 08/26 2016 EOD
Today has conflicting conventional signals with a "Golden Cross", 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA, and the 10-day above the 20-day and both above the 50-day. We got a higher low and high during an apparent consolidation (read that, really, as neutral), we stayed slightly above the recent potential support at $1.67, and the Bollinger limits are rising.
Unfortunately, the oscillators have deteriorated with more now below neutral.
So just using conventional stuff I would lean to just more consolidation with minor perturbations up and down.
Considering my unconventional stuff, we had a typical up/down/partial re-trace in the early part of the day with general weakening thereafter in VWAP and buy percentages. This is quite common when we are consolidating with a weakening bias. We had a dearth of larger trades, and no "larger larger trades" and ended with a narrowing, but still too wide, spread, and a too low buy percentage. These add up to continued consolidation at best.
These were countered only by a rise in VWAP after two down days and a short percentage in the lower end of my preferred range (needs re-check) and has been within the range, high and low, for eight days. Of course if we are in consolidation none of this is anything outside normal for that situation either.
Then add in the AGM is near and it used to be common to have a run-up into the meeting.
I'm, probably unsurprisingly, coming down thinking continued near-term consolidation with a negative bias but remaining long-term bullish.
Today was typical of what we see except for the apparent absence or weakness of the left coasties contingent. We opened "high" (flat with yesterday's $1.72), moved up as high as $1.7865 (vs. yesterday's $1.78) by 10:39, gave back a bit more than half the rise re-tracing to $1.74 by 11:30, went flattish until a sudden drop gave back more hitting $1.70 at 12:18. Then a somewhat typical small rise back to $1.73 by 13:12 followed by flattish, down, flattish, down to hit the day's low again at 15:36. A brief sideways ended as 15:48 began a weak very low-volume move up to close on 15:59's 800 $1.70->$1.695->$1.69 and 16:00's 734 buy for $1.71.
Day's VWAP, $1.7285, was almost spot-on the day's mid-point of $1.73. Just looking at that, what we typically term "consolidation" and, IMO, typically predominately controlled and engineered by the MMs for their own benefit as the garner what they can from the retailers and, maybe more importantly, from the fees paid by the exchanges for MMs provision of what is termed as "liquidity".
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:57 opened the day with a 2,980 buy for $1.72, and b/a went 30:35 $1.70/3 (backed up by 2.9K:4.7K $1.67/$1.74), then came 9:33's 332 $1.71, 9:34's b/a 2.8K:1.3K $1.67/$1.71, 9:35's ~1.5K $1.69, 9:36's 5K $1.6926, 9:37's b/a 100:2.9K $1.68/71, 9:38's b/a 2.4K:1.5K $1.67/$1.70, 9:39's 1.5K $1.68/9, 9:41's b/a 100:2.7K $1.69/$1.71, 9:41's ~1.8K $1.6910/$1.7020, 9:43's 10.1K $1.69->$1.68, 9:47's b/a 700:1.8K $1.68/70, and 9:49's b/a 700:500 $1.68/9.
That began very low/no-volume $1.68/70. B/a at 9:50 was 400:2.2K $1.68/9, 9:53 3K:500 $1.68/70, 9:58 1.9K:1.6K $1.69/71. The period ended on 9:57's 800 $1.6950/$1.70.
9:58-10:18 began a move higher on 9:58's 100 $1.71. Then b/a at 10:01 was 2.2K:1K $1.69/71, 10:04's 1.4K did $1.70->$1.7095->$1.71->$1.72, 10:06's 7.6K did $1.73->$1.7250->$1.73, 10:07's 4.6K $1.73->$1.75, and the peak came on 10:18's 20.4K $1.7350->$1.74->$1.76->$1.77->$1.74->$1.7350 (looked like mkt buy order) to end the period.
10:19-10:39, after one no-trade minute, began a climb from the 10:18 ending low on 10:20-:23's 5.8K $1.73->$1.7350->$1.7350/$1.74->$1.75, hit 10:26's ~5.7K $1.76/7, 10:37's 8.4K $1.77/8, and ended the period on 10:39's $1.7850->$1.7799->$1.76.
10:40-11:16 began mostly very low/no-volume $1.76/8 on 10:40's 100 $1.77. Volume was interrupted by 10:49-:51's 15.1K $1.7684->$1.78->$1.76. B/a at 10:58 was 6.3K:1.7K $1.76/8, 11:08 400:2.1K $1.76/8, 11:13 7K:2.2K $1.76/7. 11:16's 500 $1.76 ended the period.
11:17-12:14 began a drop on 11:17's ~8.6K $1.76->$1.7550->$1.75, hit 11:19's 300 $1.74, saw 11:20's b/a of 400:2.2K $1.74/5, and bottomed on 11:23's 4K $1.74->$1.7350->$1.73->$1.74. That began a very low/no-volume $1.73/4. B/a at 11:26 was 3.7K:3.8K $1.73/4, 11:34 1.3K:3.1K $1.73/4, 11:45 2.1K:4.6K $1.73/5, 12:03 3.2K:2.7K $1.73/4. The period ended on 12:14's ~2.3K $1.73->$1.7299.
12:15-13:10 dropped and began very low/no-volume $1.70/1 on 12:18's ~3.2K $1.71->$1.70->$1.7016. B/a at 12:20 was 1.7K:1.4K $1.70/1, 12:27 200:2.6K $1.71/2, 12:34 200:3K $1.71/2, 13:04 500:3.1K $1.72/3. The period ended on 13:10's 200 $1.72.
13:11-13:50, after a no-trades minute, began very low/no-volume $1.72/3 on 13:12's 100 $1.73. B/a at 1:19 was 5.9K:4.1K $1.71/3, 13:29 6.4K:3.5K $1.71/3. The period ended on 13:50's 1.5K $1.72/3.
13:51-15:09, after one no-trades minute, began $1.71/2 (mostly $1.71) on 13:52's 500 $1.7199. 14:05 b/a was 5.2K:3.4K $1.71/2, 14:10 5K:3.3K $1.71/2, 14:29 4.5K:5.3K $1.71/2, 15:00 5.7K:5K $1.71/2. The period ended on 15:09's 128 $1.72.
15:10-16:00 began initially with mostly low/no-volume $1.7001/$1.71 interrupted by 15:14's ~10.8K $1.7099 (150)/$1.71, on 15:13's1K$1.7050. B/a at 15:14 was 6.9K:1.5K $1.70/1. A drop was done on 15:22-:23's 8K $1.70->$1.71->$1.70->$1.69. Low/no-volume $1.69/70 began. B/a at 15:28 was 2.8K:1.4K $1.68/9. B/a at 15:30 was 2.7K1.4K $1.68/9. Range tailed down to very low/no-volume $1.6850/$1.69 at 15:33. Volume was interrupted by 15:39-:41's ~19K $1.6850/9. B/a at 15:44 was 2.3K:4.2K $1.68/70, 15:50 1.2K:2.4K $1.69/70. 15:52's 100 $1.70 moved range back to very low/no-volume $1.69/70. B/a at 15:55 was 1.3K:2.4K $1.69/70. The period and day ended on 15:59's 800 $1.70->$1.695->$1.69 and 16:00's 734 buy for $1.71.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 8 larger trades (>= 5K & 2 4K+) totaling 54,274, 20.20% of day's volume, with a $1.7360 VWAP. The count of larger trades is reasonable for the day's volume but the lack of any "larger larger trades" leaves the percentage of day's volume a bit low. I think this indicates the majority of the day's action didn't include any "big" money - it was about all retailers and MMs.
This may not be indicative of anything significant as today was Friday and, as noted yesterday, Friday's are often low volume and activity. FWIW though, this does fit with yesterday's { These look pretty normal for the volume and being in a re-trace or a consolidation, which is suggested by the fact that our range is right where a reversion to the mean suggests it should be. } So, it being Friday notwithstanding, today's reducing volume, lower larger trades count and percentage of day's volume fit right in with consolidation. Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:57 26140 $1.6800 $1.7200 $44,227.84 $1.6920 9.73% 33.76% Incl 09:36 $1.6926 5,000 09:43 $1.6800 4,800
10:18 36530 $1.7000 $1.7700 $63,793.11 $1.7463 13.60% 56.56% Incl 10:07 $1.7300 4,000
10:18 $1.7500 5,700 $1.7700 9,075
10:39 36530 $1.7300 $1.7865 $64,455.70 $1.7645 13.60% 53.90%
11:16 25155 $1.7600 $1.7800 $44,418.87 $1.7658 9.36% 48.61% Incl 10:49 $1.7684 5,000 10:51 $1.7600 10,000
12:14 43684 $1.7299 $1.7600 $75,913.04 $1.7378 16.26% 45.78%
13:10 17233 $1.7000 $1.7200 $29,535.80 $1.7139 6.41% 46.88%
13:50 6000 $1.7110 $1.7300 $10,321.50 $1.7203 2.23% 46.06%
15:09 21248 $1.7100 $1.7200 $36,384.48 $1.7124 7.91% 43.22%
16:00 52720 $1.6800 $1.7100 $89,405.87 $1.6959 19.62% 45.11% Incl 15:14 $1.7100 10,699
The left coasties were apparently in early today but either didn't hang around long or were not effective in holding price up, as strength was demonstrated by the VWAP and buy percentages only in the periods ending 10:39 through 11:16. It was generally downhill thereafter.
Of course I could be wrong because I assume they are longs or warrant holders working to push price higher. They could just as well be shorters shorting into early strength. I would then expect the buy percentage or VWAP or both to be weaker unless they were just sitting on their offers letting them get hit. Then they could be doing covering buys at lower prices. Then I would think buy percentage would be higher unless they were just sitting on the bids letting them get hit.
On low volume days with tight b/a spreads both are entirely feasible scenarios.
In summary (too late, of course), there's no way I really know what's really going on to cause this price behavior.
On the traditional TA front, movements were: __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 0.00% 1.82% 0.37% 0.00% -28.51%
Prior -8.99% -2.37% -5.82% -1.72% -63.64%
The open and close movements combined with reducing, and fairly low, volume suggest consolidation and/or it's Friday. The higher low and high (see below) were marginal movements and don't argue against this. Further, the spread is contracting (see below), another indication of consolidation. But then, it's Friday so none of this is solid today.
On my minimal chart, I iterated yesterday what I said two days ago: { ... what I stated yesterday still holds, but for the possibility of entering short-term consolidation stopping the fall: I expect our low to hit the $1.67/70 price range, which I had identified as a potential resistance but which was irrelevant during the pop up. Given we blew right by it going up I won't be surprised to see us do the same going down unless volume gets extremely low before we encounter it. } Today we got "extremely" low volume, did not blow right through it and we hit $1.68.
Further, unlike yesterday, we did not penetrate the $1.67/70 (horizontal orange line at $1.67) support but stayed just above it at $1.68. The only other thing to note is that the Bollinger limits continue upward, raising the suggested mid-point that might offer some support in the case of a re-trace when consolidation is exited, if it works out we actually are in in it - maybe another day or two will confirm.
So for now it looks like continued consolidation based only on this chart.
On my one-year chart, being the third day after the unwarranted pop, maybe something in the nature of a trend is appearing and might be worthwhile considering, keeping in mind today was Friday. The first item is the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day, the "Golden Cross", with readings of $1.4706 and $1.4673 respectively. The 10 and 20-day are above the other two and in the "proper" order. Only the 200-day SMA is still falling. If range holds it will drop for another 12 days or so.
The oscillators I watch did about what I suggested yesterday: [i{ did weaken but most are still above neutral, which I do not believe will hold. } RSI held flat, accumulation/distribution and MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R, and full stochastic weakened. ADX-related sort of netted out to neutral. RSI, MFI, momentum and ADX-related are above neutral and the rest are below neutral. Nothing is overbought or oversold although MFI is quite near overbought. It's falling though.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3591 and $1.8378 ($1.3469 and $1.8177 yesterday), continue rising a diverging thanks to the faster rise of the upper limit.
All in, the rising high and low make me want to suspect an upturn is in progress but the weakening in the oscillators, reducing and low volume, suggest near-term consolidation. My bias is to think this will resolve lower but I also wonder that's just a result of a jaded outlook because of the history.
So using just all the above, I'll go neutral (consolidation) with a sneaky, but unvoiced, suspicion we'll go lower, upcoming AGM not withstanding.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in different direction but the buy percentage movement is so small as to be inconsequential so I don't think there's any import in the divergence. The short percentage dropped back into the lower area of the desired range (needs re-check). In the recent pattern that was followed by a VWAP drop. It's not a consistent behavior though.
The spread continues to narrow, consistent with consolidation. As with yesterday it's still a bit wide so I don't think we're fully into consolidation yet - there's a risk we break up or down without fully getting there.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings continue to deteriorate moving from 8 negatives and 16 positives to 9 negatives and 15 positives. As mentioned yesterday, this is expected to continue for a few days. Change since 07/25 is $0.2028, 13.29%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are 0.5606%, 0.7499%, 0.7927%, 0.3806%, 0.5715%, 0.3934%, 0.4850%, 0.4435%, 0.4761%, and 0.4766%.
All in, I think this unconventional stuff suggests a mild negative short-term bias within consolidation.
Bill
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