AI
Friday, August 26, 2016 9:22:23 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 08/25 2016 EOD
The company announced the webcast of the AGM 8/31 10:00 PDT.
It was a day with an open high, a big drop, a substantial recovery, another slow big drop, and an attempted stick save, this time succeeding in getting a close at the mid-point of the day's range. The apparent arrival of the left coasties had a beneficial affect, apparently being the cause of the recovery from about 11ish through 11:30ish off the low of the day.
ATM it's an open question of will the re-trace continue or enter a short-term consolidation, which is suggested by the fact that our range is right where a reversion to the mean suggests it should be. This is also supported by current price range and conventional TA indications. My unconventional stuff is mixed, sort of, with mostly bearish indications but some hint of consolidation appearing in the narrowing spread and the buy percentage. Since tomorrow is Friday, often low volume and activity, we'
ll likely need to wait until next week to ascertain the likelihood of action with some confidence.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:27 opened the day with a 794 sell for $1.72 & 254 more at $1.7399 (151), $1.74 (3) & $1.78 (100). Then came 9:31's 5K $1.7272, 9:35's 2.6K $1.72->$1.71->$1.70, 9:36's 1K $1.7001, 937's b/a of 990:6.8K $1.70/1, 9:37's 1.1K $1.70, 9:39's 2.1K $1.7010 (2K)->$1.73 (100, 9:41's b/a of 1.6K:600 $1.70/3, 9:43's 214 $1.71, 9:44's ~6.6K $1.70/$1.7118, 9:47's b/a of 1.7K:2K $1.70/3, 9:47's 520 $1.7219, 9:50's 508 $1.7150, 9:52's 570 $1.7010/$1.71, and 9:54's 200 $1.72.
Thereafter came very low/no-volume $1.71/2. B/a at 9:55 was 1.1K:500 $1.70/2, 10:06 1.9K:1K $1.70/2, 10:12 3.8K:1.2K $1.70/2, 10:22 776:1.9K $1.71/2. The price and volume were interrupted by 10:22's ~3.7K $1.72->$1.71->$1.72, 10:23's b/a of 1.6K:1.1K $1.72/3, and 10:23-:25's ~10K $1.72->$1.73->$1.72. 10:27's 846 $1.72 ended the period. It looks like the price and volume interruption foretold period end - often that's not the case.
10:28-10:39, after one no-trades minutes, did a drop on 10:29's ~7.1K $1.71->$1.70, 10:31-:32's ~3.3K $1.7001->$1.72->$1.7052, 10:36-:38's ~27.7K $1.7005->$1.69->$1.68->$1.69->$1.68->$1.67->$1.6610->$1.6601. The period ended on 10:39's ~6.3K $1.6601/$1.6614.
10:40-10:55 began mostly low, some no-volume $1.67/8 through 10:48 on 10:40's 5.8K $1.6701/$1.6799. At 10:49 low/medium-volume $1.66/7 began (mostly $1.66xx). B/a at 10:50 was 3.9K:1.1K $1.66/7, 10:55 8.8K:7.7K $1.65/6. The period ended on 10:55's ~7.4K $1.65/$1.6516.
10:56-11:11 began a strong move up (left coasties arrival?) on 11:56's $1.65->$1.67, hit 10:58's 985 $1.68, 11:04's 22.7K $1.67->$1.70, b/a at 11:06 was 7.2K:100 $1.68/9, 11:05-:07's 13K $1.68->$1.69->$1.70->$1.72, b/a at 11:07 was 18.8K:1.5K $1.69/71,and the period ended on 11:10-:11's 5.6K $1.73->$1.72/3.
11:12-12:06, after a no-trades minute began very low/no-volume $1.72 through 11:26 on 11:13's 10K $1.71->$1.69->$1.71. Then came very low/no-volume $1.70/2 after doing 11:27-11:30's 14.5K $1.71/2->$1.70->$1.70/2. B/a at 11:33 was 6.4K:2.9K $1.70/2. Range narrowed to $1.70/1 at 11:33. B/a at 11:54 was 2.8K:4.1K $1.70/2. Range changed to $1.70/1 at 12:00. The period ended on 12:06's 1.5K $1.70 when b/a at 12:06 was 2.4K:2.4K $1.70/1.
12:07-12:45, after six no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.68/9 on 12:13's ~3.8K $1.70->$1.6905. B/a at 12:22 was 1.2K:2.3K $1.68/9, 12:36 ~800:2.5K $1.68/9. The period ended on 12:45's ~7K $1.6850/$1.69.
12:46-13:21, after four no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.69/70 on 12:50's 300 $1.69-$1.70. B/a at 12:54 was ~400:3.1K $1.69/$1.70, 13:11 1.3K:3.7K $1.69/70. The period ended on 13:21's 4K $1.6910/$1.70.
13:22-13:46, after two no trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.68/9 on 13:24's ~2.1K $1.69->$1.6801. B/a at 13:30 was 600:1.7K $1.68/9. 13:46's 222 $1.69 ended the period.
13:47-14:52, after three no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.69/70 on 13:50's ~3.7K $1.6850->$1.69->$1.70. B/a at 13:58 was 7.5K:1.2K $1.69/70, 14:07 6.9K:1K $1.69/70, 14:18 7.4K:2.8K $1.69/71 (odd-lot 70 offered $1.70), 14:26 ~3.8K:5.7K $1.69/70, 14:34 100:1.7K $1.68/9, 14:35 6.1K:4.3K $1.69/70. The period ended on 14:52's 200 $1.70.
14:53-15:21 did a drop on 14:53's 752 $1.68->$1.69->$1.69, 15:00's 1.8K $1.68->$1.6750, 15:03's 1K $1.67->$1.6750->$1.67 and then went sideways on almost no volume through 15:08. B/a at 15:06 was 4K:3.8K $1.67/8. 15:09's 704 $1.6736->$1.68 started a brief move up hitting 15:11's 11.4K $1.6793->$1.68->$1.6799->$1.68->$1.6775->$1.69. B/a at 15:16 was 3.5K:1.7K $1.67/8. Then began low/medium-volume $1.67/8. 15:21's 680 $1.68 ended the period.
15:22-16:00, after three no-trades minutes, began climbing just like yesterday, after some initial volatility on 15:25's 1K $1.6850/$1.6898, 15:27's 2.7K $1.6850/$1.69, 15:28's 3.2K $1.68, 15:29's ~2.6K $1.6893/99 and 15:31's 10.7K $1.6850->$1.68->$1.67-$1.6856->$1.68->$1.69. Trading then settled in on low/medium-volume $1.68/60 through 15:55 when b/a became 1.5K:2.4K $1.69/70. Then 15:55-16:00's ~8.1k did $1.6898->$1.69->$1.70->$1.69->$1.6950->$1.7050->$1.71 through 15:59 and closed the period and day on a 705 buy for $1.71.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 15 larger trades (>=5K & 3 4K+) totaling 83,311, 22.17% of day's volume, with a $1.6896 VWAP. These look pretty normal for the volume and being in a re-trace or a consolidation, which is suggested by the fact that our range is right where a reversion to the mean suggests it should be.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart the most notable item is the penetration of the $1.67/70 support, upper horizontal orange line, and recovery to close above it at the mid-point of the day's range. With declining volume there's a reasonable chance that we enter a short-term consolidation here. We also bottomed at a faux potential support, $1.65 which was the peak of a leg up on 5/24-5/25 ($1.66, $1.65) when a reversal occurred. I normally think of these a pause points rather than support or resistance because initially there aren't any additional touch points, as was the case until today. One more touch point and it becomes more significant though.
As mentioned, our stick save managed to get a close at the reversion-to-the-mean price point, plus or minus. This offers the possibility that we enter a short-term consolidation, especially with the reducing volume. Tomorrow being Friday, often low volume and activity, we can't judge until next week.
The Bollinger limits continue to diverge, even though both a rising, because the upper limit is rising more quickly than the lower limit. The mid-point is moving up, suggesting we'll see a potential re-trace low point around $1.58/9, possibly with a little overshoot, if it does continue to re-trace tomorrow.
All told, based only on this chart, what I stated yesterday still holds, but for the possibility of entering short-term consolidation stopping the fall: { I expect our low to hit the $1.67/70 price range, which I had identified as a potential resistance but which was irrelevant during the pop up. Given we blew right by it going up I won't be surprised to see us do the same going down unless volume gets extremely low before we encounter it.
Beyond that, the $1.59/60 and $1.53/4 supports, which have demonstrated some strength, will come into play bolstered by a new short-term rising support (not shown on the posted chart yet) that will be about $1.54 tomorrow and has a slope of ~$0.004/day. With an origin and four touches that held it suggests decent support. But three of the touches were low volume, meaning we can't really determine how strong it's likely to be. We also have a medium-term rising support (rising green line) that could come into play. Today it looks to be about $1.43 with a slope of ~+$0.0033/day.
A simple reversion to the mean of the span from the $1.45 low of 8/9 to the $1.97 high of 8/23 would suggest ~1.70, which we already touched on still-high but falling volume. This suggests we will move further down and I expect $1.57-$1.60 potential support will be tested within a couple days. The mid-point of the Bollinger band today is $1.56 and rising. I expect the rise to slow and we'll likely got to and below the mid-point, meaning we'll likely test the $1.53/4 support in the next week, barring any positive catalyst(s). }
We already hit the $1.67/70, on very low but not extremely low volume, and are now near the $1.65 and I wouldn't be surprised to see that touched tomorrow during the early minutes of the session.
On my one-year chart, yesterday's assessment still holds: { ... everything is so far unfolding as expected with a re-trace on reducing volume under way. So the SMAs will be still rising while all the oscillators weaken. } However I do need to consider stuff earlier than I anticipated. There is a factor of note: the widely followed 50/200-day SMA cross seems likely to happen tomorrow which could engender some bullish behavior in the fast-money crowd, driving us up again. Other than that, all the oscillators did weaken but most are still above neutral, which I do not believe will hold.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3469 and $1.8177 ($1.3358 and $1.7934 yesterday) are both rising and diverging due to the faster rise of the upper limit. This gives us a rising mid-point which today suggests a mid-point around $1.56, offering the potential of a pause if we do have a bigger than expected move tomorrow.
All in, I'm leaning near-term bearish due to the lack of any fundamental reason for the pop we just saw and think we should head back towards the prior price range. But the possibility of near-term consolidation has appeared and we got the announcement of the coming AGM webcast, which often leads to some bullish behavior.
So I think I'll go near-term agnostic here with a longer-term bullish bias still in place.
My unconventional stuff below might not agree - we'll see.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, suggesting normalcy, and the short percentage is just above my desired range (needs re-check) while the buy percentage is down at the bottom of what's normal for us when price is weakening. The short percentage suggests a lot more shares traded outside of the brokerages' MM desks and/or shorters being back in driving price lower, likely for a short-term turn around play I would guess as the short interest reports show a trend of reducing short interest.
Regardless, these two combined suggest near-term weakness. With tomorrow being Friday, often low volume and activity, we may not see it until next week. Adding in the reducing spread ...
The spread continues to narrow and offers the possibility, along with reduced volume, that we might do a short-term consolidation. As mentioned though, we'll likely not be able to have confidence about whether or not that's happening until we get by Friday.
Having said that, being in a down trend with a spread this wide does suggest more near-term weakness is likely. The recent VWAP trend supports this but must be discounted in light of the recent baseless pop - I (and many others I'm sure) saw the re-trace as almost certain and the degree of re-trace is the only real unknown.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings continued deteriorating, moving from 8 negatives and 16 positives to nine negatives and 15 positives. Change since 07/22 is $0.1838, 12.21%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are 0.5199%, 0.7499%, 0.7927%, 0.3806%, 0.5715%, 0.3934%, 0.4850%, 0.4435%, 0.4761%, and 0.4766%.
I expect the averages of the changes to start to normalize over time.
All in, the preponderance of the short and buy percentages with the spread suggest weakness as most likely. But the possibility of consolidation and the approaching AGM webcast make it all pretty iffy.
I'll go near-term neutral here but with a gut feeling that more weakness is most likely.
Bill
The company announced the webcast of the AGM 8/31 10:00 PDT.
It was a day with an open high, a big drop, a substantial recovery, another slow big drop, and an attempted stick save, this time succeeding in getting a close at the mid-point of the day's range. The apparent arrival of the left coasties had a beneficial affect, apparently being the cause of the recovery from about 11ish through 11:30ish off the low of the day.
ATM it's an open question of will the re-trace continue or enter a short-term consolidation, which is suggested by the fact that our range is right where a reversion to the mean suggests it should be. This is also supported by current price range and conventional TA indications. My unconventional stuff is mixed, sort of, with mostly bearish indications but some hint of consolidation appearing in the narrowing spread and the buy percentage. Since tomorrow is Friday, often low volume and activity, we'
ll likely need to wait until next week to ascertain the likelihood of action with some confidence.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:27 opened the day with a 794 sell for $1.72 & 254 more at $1.7399 (151), $1.74 (3) & $1.78 (100). Then came 9:31's 5K $1.7272, 9:35's 2.6K $1.72->$1.71->$1.70, 9:36's 1K $1.7001, 937's b/a of 990:6.8K $1.70/1, 9:37's 1.1K $1.70, 9:39's 2.1K $1.7010 (2K)->$1.73 (100, 9:41's b/a of 1.6K:600 $1.70/3, 9:43's 214 $1.71, 9:44's ~6.6K $1.70/$1.7118, 9:47's b/a of 1.7K:2K $1.70/3, 9:47's 520 $1.7219, 9:50's 508 $1.7150, 9:52's 570 $1.7010/$1.71, and 9:54's 200 $1.72.
Thereafter came very low/no-volume $1.71/2. B/a at 9:55 was 1.1K:500 $1.70/2, 10:06 1.9K:1K $1.70/2, 10:12 3.8K:1.2K $1.70/2, 10:22 776:1.9K $1.71/2. The price and volume were interrupted by 10:22's ~3.7K $1.72->$1.71->$1.72, 10:23's b/a of 1.6K:1.1K $1.72/3, and 10:23-:25's ~10K $1.72->$1.73->$1.72. 10:27's 846 $1.72 ended the period. It looks like the price and volume interruption foretold period end - often that's not the case.
10:28-10:39, after one no-trades minutes, did a drop on 10:29's ~7.1K $1.71->$1.70, 10:31-:32's ~3.3K $1.7001->$1.72->$1.7052, 10:36-:38's ~27.7K $1.7005->$1.69->$1.68->$1.69->$1.68->$1.67->$1.6610->$1.6601. The period ended on 10:39's ~6.3K $1.6601/$1.6614.
10:40-10:55 began mostly low, some no-volume $1.67/8 through 10:48 on 10:40's 5.8K $1.6701/$1.6799. At 10:49 low/medium-volume $1.66/7 began (mostly $1.66xx). B/a at 10:50 was 3.9K:1.1K $1.66/7, 10:55 8.8K:7.7K $1.65/6. The period ended on 10:55's ~7.4K $1.65/$1.6516.
10:56-11:11 began a strong move up (left coasties arrival?) on 11:56's $1.65->$1.67, hit 10:58's 985 $1.68, 11:04's 22.7K $1.67->$1.70, b/a at 11:06 was 7.2K:100 $1.68/9, 11:05-:07's 13K $1.68->$1.69->$1.70->$1.72, b/a at 11:07 was 18.8K:1.5K $1.69/71,and the period ended on 11:10-:11's 5.6K $1.73->$1.72/3.
11:12-12:06, after a no-trades minute began very low/no-volume $1.72 through 11:26 on 11:13's 10K $1.71->$1.69->$1.71. Then came very low/no-volume $1.70/2 after doing 11:27-11:30's 14.5K $1.71/2->$1.70->$1.70/2. B/a at 11:33 was 6.4K:2.9K $1.70/2. Range narrowed to $1.70/1 at 11:33. B/a at 11:54 was 2.8K:4.1K $1.70/2. Range changed to $1.70/1 at 12:00. The period ended on 12:06's 1.5K $1.70 when b/a at 12:06 was 2.4K:2.4K $1.70/1.
12:07-12:45, after six no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.68/9 on 12:13's ~3.8K $1.70->$1.6905. B/a at 12:22 was 1.2K:2.3K $1.68/9, 12:36 ~800:2.5K $1.68/9. The period ended on 12:45's ~7K $1.6850/$1.69.
12:46-13:21, after four no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.69/70 on 12:50's 300 $1.69-$1.70. B/a at 12:54 was ~400:3.1K $1.69/$1.70, 13:11 1.3K:3.7K $1.69/70. The period ended on 13:21's 4K $1.6910/$1.70.
13:22-13:46, after two no trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.68/9 on 13:24's ~2.1K $1.69->$1.6801. B/a at 13:30 was 600:1.7K $1.68/9. 13:46's 222 $1.69 ended the period.
13:47-14:52, after three no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.69/70 on 13:50's ~3.7K $1.6850->$1.69->$1.70. B/a at 13:58 was 7.5K:1.2K $1.69/70, 14:07 6.9K:1K $1.69/70, 14:18 7.4K:2.8K $1.69/71 (odd-lot 70 offered $1.70), 14:26 ~3.8K:5.7K $1.69/70, 14:34 100:1.7K $1.68/9, 14:35 6.1K:4.3K $1.69/70. The period ended on 14:52's 200 $1.70.
14:53-15:21 did a drop on 14:53's 752 $1.68->$1.69->$1.69, 15:00's 1.8K $1.68->$1.6750, 15:03's 1K $1.67->$1.6750->$1.67 and then went sideways on almost no volume through 15:08. B/a at 15:06 was 4K:3.8K $1.67/8. 15:09's 704 $1.6736->$1.68 started a brief move up hitting 15:11's 11.4K $1.6793->$1.68->$1.6799->$1.68->$1.6775->$1.69. B/a at 15:16 was 3.5K:1.7K $1.67/8. Then began low/medium-volume $1.67/8. 15:21's 680 $1.68 ended the period.
15:22-16:00, after three no-trades minutes, began climbing just like yesterday, after some initial volatility on 15:25's 1K $1.6850/$1.6898, 15:27's 2.7K $1.6850/$1.69, 15:28's 3.2K $1.68, 15:29's ~2.6K $1.6893/99 and 15:31's 10.7K $1.6850->$1.68->$1.67-$1.6856->$1.68->$1.69. Trading then settled in on low/medium-volume $1.68/60 through 15:55 when b/a became 1.5K:2.4K $1.69/70. Then 15:55-16:00's ~8.1k did $1.6898->$1.69->$1.70->$1.69->$1.6950->$1.7050->$1.71 through 15:59 and closed the period and day on a 705 buy for $1.71.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 15 larger trades (>=5K & 3 4K+) totaling 83,311, 22.17% of day's volume, with a $1.6896 VWAP. These look pretty normal for the volume and being in a re-trace or a consolidation, which is suggested by the fact that our range is right where a reversion to the mean suggests it should be.
Note how the VWAP and buy percentage tried to tick up during the time when the left coasties would be coming in. Neither held very well but it did apparently allow the stick save to close at the mid-point of the day's range.
Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:27 39692 $1.7000 $1.7800 $68,138.93 $1.7167 10.56% 39.14% Incl 09:31 $1.7272 5,000 09:44 $1.7118 5,646
10:39 44112 $1.6601 $1.7200 $74,054.91 $1.6788 11.74% 21.82% Incl 10:37 $1.6610 6,000 $1.6700 4,300
10:55 38258 $1.6500 $1.6801 $63,747.92 $1.6663 10.18% 24.93%
11:11 62496 $1.6500 $1.7290 $105,340.78 $1.6856 16.63% 40.11% Incl 10:56 $1.6700 9,400 11:04 $1.6800 6,151
11:04 $1.7000 8,264
12:06 43184 $1.6900 $1.7200 $73,744.20 $1.7077 11.49% 35.75% Incl 11:13 $1.6900 5,100 11:26 $1.7170 5,000
11:28 $1.7135 5,000
12:45 21700 $1.6800 $1.7000 $36,636.05 $1.6883 5.77% 35.95% Incl 12:23 $1.6840 5,000
13:21 4900 $1.6901 $1.7000 $8,311.93 $1.6963 1.30% 36.63%
13:46 4400 $1.6801 $1.6900 $7,416.15 $1.6855 1.17% 36.26%
14:52 32736 $1.6850 $1.7000 $55,413.88 $1.6928 8.71% 37.26%
15:21 27766 $1.6700 $1.6900 $46,625.06 $1.6792 7.39% 40.63% Incl 15:14 $1.6799 5,000
16:00 52752 $1.6700 $1.7100 $88,943.18 $1.6861 14.04% 42.57% Incl 15:40 $1.6801 4,200 4,250
15:50 $1.6890 5,000
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
The movements today reflect what I was expecting. Combined with the ending values from the intra-day breakdown and the stick save I'm wondering if we enter-short-term consolidation or continue lower or both. Tomorrow being Friday, when volume and action are very often quite low, we may not be able to tell until next week.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -8.99% -2.37% -5.82% -1.72% -63.64%
Prior 18.13% 6.97% -4.06% -7.94% -71.98%
On my minimal chart the most notable item is the penetration of the $1.67/70 support, upper horizontal orange line, and recovery to close above it at the mid-point of the day's range. With declining volume there's a reasonable chance that we enter a short-term consolidation here. We also bottomed at a faux potential support, $1.65 which was the peak of a leg up on 5/24-5/25 ($1.66, $1.65) when a reversal occurred. I normally think of these a pause points rather than support or resistance because initially there aren't any additional touch points, as was the case until today. One more touch point and it becomes more significant though.
As mentioned, our stick save managed to get a close at the reversion-to-the-mean price point, plus or minus. This offers the possibility that we enter a short-term consolidation, especially with the reducing volume. Tomorrow being Friday, often low volume and activity, we can't judge until next week.
The Bollinger limits continue to diverge, even though both a rising, because the upper limit is rising more quickly than the lower limit. The mid-point is moving up, suggesting we'll see a potential re-trace low point around $1.58/9, possibly with a little overshoot, if it does continue to re-trace tomorrow.
All told, based only on this chart, what I stated yesterday still holds, but for the possibility of entering short-term consolidation stopping the fall: { I expect our low to hit the $1.67/70 price range, which I had identified as a potential resistance but which was irrelevant during the pop up. Given we blew right by it going up I won't be surprised to see us do the same going down unless volume gets extremely low before we encounter it.
Beyond that, the $1.59/60 and $1.53/4 supports, which have demonstrated some strength, will come into play bolstered by a new short-term rising support (not shown on the posted chart yet) that will be about $1.54 tomorrow and has a slope of ~$0.004/day. With an origin and four touches that held it suggests decent support. But three of the touches were low volume, meaning we can't really determine how strong it's likely to be. We also have a medium-term rising support (rising green line) that could come into play. Today it looks to be about $1.43 with a slope of ~+$0.0033/day.
A simple reversion to the mean of the span from the $1.45 low of 8/9 to the $1.97 high of 8/23 would suggest ~1.70, which we already touched on still-high but falling volume. This suggests we will move further down and I expect $1.57-$1.60 potential support will be tested within a couple days. The mid-point of the Bollinger band today is $1.56 and rising. I expect the rise to slow and we'll likely got to and below the mid-point, meaning we'll likely test the $1.53/4 support in the next week, barring any positive catalyst(s). }
We already hit the $1.67/70, on very low but not extremely low volume, and are now near the $1.65 and I wouldn't be surprised to see that touched tomorrow during the early minutes of the session.
On my one-year chart, yesterday's assessment still holds: { ... everything is so far unfolding as expected with a re-trace on reducing volume under way. So the SMAs will be still rising while all the oscillators weaken. } However I do need to consider stuff earlier than I anticipated. There is a factor of note: the widely followed 50/200-day SMA cross seems likely to happen tomorrow which could engender some bullish behavior in the fast-money crowd, driving us up again. Other than that, all the oscillators did weaken but most are still above neutral, which I do not believe will hold.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3469 and $1.8177 ($1.3358 and $1.7934 yesterday) are both rising and diverging due to the faster rise of the upper limit. This gives us a rising mid-point which today suggests a mid-point around $1.56, offering the potential of a pause if we do have a bigger than expected move tomorrow.
All in, I'm leaning near-term bearish due to the lack of any fundamental reason for the pop we just saw and think we should head back towards the prior price range. But the possibility of near-term consolidation has appeared and we got the announcement of the coming AGM webcast, which often leads to some bullish behavior.
So I think I'll go near-term agnostic here with a longer-term bullish bias still in place.
My unconventional stuff below might not agree - we'll see.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, suggesting normalcy, and the short percentage is just above my desired range (needs re-check) while the buy percentage is down at the bottom of what's normal for us when price is weakening. The short percentage suggests a lot more shares traded outside of the brokerages' MM desks and/or shorters being back in driving price lower, likely for a short-term turn around play I would guess as the short interest reports show a trend of reducing short interest.
Regardless, these two combined suggest near-term weakness. With tomorrow being Friday, often low volume and activity, we may not see it until next week. Adding in the reducing spread ...
The spread continues to narrow and offers the possibility, along with reduced volume, that we might do a short-term consolidation. As mentioned though, we'll likely not be able to have confidence about whether or not that's happening until we get by Friday.
Having said that, being in a down trend with a spread this wide does suggest more near-term weakness is likely. The recent VWAP trend supports this but must be discounted in light of the recent baseless pop - I (and many others I'm sure) saw the re-trace as almost certain and the degree of re-trace is the only real unknown.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings continued deteriorating, moving from 8 negatives and 16 positives to nine negatives and 15 positives. Change since 07/22 is $0.1838, 12.21%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are 0.5199%, 0.7499%, 0.7927%, 0.3806%, 0.5715%, 0.3934%, 0.4850%, 0.4435%, 0.4761%, and 0.4766%.
I expect the averages of the changes to start to normalize over time.
All in, the preponderance of the short and buy percentages with the spread suggest weakness as most likely. But the possibility of consolidation and the approaching AGM webcast make it all pretty iffy.
I'll go near-term neutral here but with a gut feeling that more weakness is most likely.
Bill
