Replies to post #267851 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[cheynew]

I think they have sold some shares no matter how low the pps. We'll know next week.

[The Other Guy]

If management makes it any more blatant that Peregrine is now really Avid Manufacturing (w/ unproven technology) their high salaries could be called out. I think they are being cautious by hiding behind the veil of Bavi and Betabodies potential.

As said, right after the halt of Sunrise, management should have taken pay cuts to preserve cash flow.

[Carboat]

12 _ 13x fwd earnings+ who has that valuation. But I agree if they are a mfg company, cut expenses, headcount and facilities. Stop hiding avid numbers in consolidated accounting. They staff and pay like a bio unicorn new drug developer and are now a low margin mfg company.

[Protector]

jakeDM, it took till last year before we got for the first time in history an idea of what the Bavi production in Avid represented within the whole.

If they have 44Mil$ income with about 22Mil$ gross profit then the 44Mil$ was not enhanced with the value/income they could have had if they would NOT have produced Bavituximab for PPHM clinical use.

The 22Mil$ also does not include therefore the profit they could have made on the extra production. We know CEO King said about 10Mil$ equivalent.

So Avid I can run about 55Mil$ 3rd party contracts if they do NOT make any bavituximab OR make it but book the income on Avid as if PPHM ordered it. Avid would then have its production margin as if PPHM was a 3rd party customer. The gross margin would then represent about 27Mil$.

With Avid II that is now open and who's numbers start to be included as of Q1 of THIS fiscal year (so as of MAY 2016) will on a yearly basis more then double that. We will see the first revenue reports of that in Sept/Oct (the upcoming 14th July Q/CC is for the last quarter of previous FY).

And Avid III is in the make and it looks it will by approx. halve the size of Avid II.

So we should be looking at a yearly capacity of about 110Mil$ with Avid I+II and 130Mil$ with Avid III added if in-house Bavituximab is counted in some way. How much sales will be able to fill the order-book for that capacity remains to be seen. And PPHM NEEDS to make Bavi for all the upcoming clinical trials, although they have a large refrigerated reserve, so if they do NOT count it I think the capacity for 3rd party sales may go down somewhere between 10 and 20Mil$.

So yes, if Avid will be weighting in for a while, while waiting for results, then we need a CLEAR separation of numbers otherwise Avid profit is HIDDENLY invested in clinical trials.