AVXL...makes the expected rally thru the resistance...
after dropping at the open yesterday to hold like magic at the magic 4.30 support line...off it goes, to break thru the 4.45 resistance level and reached back up to retest the previous peak at 4.67,hit 4.70 and sold off hard without wasting any time. The rally move was convincing in its break thru that stubborn 4.50 barrier...and then as if right on cue, it gets hammered down at 4.70.
That 4.70 area is just the beginning of the resistance zone that awaits AVXL in the ongoing rally effort. Now the pullback has begun, and IF we see the usual Elliott wave ABC, we could get another dip that retests the 4.40 support zone all over again. This is the precise pattern I was describing in the past 2 weeks. Above the 4.70 is where the real tests wait for AVXL. the 50ma is around 5 dollars. and there is a steady set of resistance stair steps,all the way from 4.70 to 6.70,in the middle is the 200ma around 5.70/5.65 and that too is waiting to be used by the MM manipulators and wall street short attackers, to slam AVXL back down when that target is reached. Or whatever other target the big money controllers decide, or their HFT supercomputer programs 'decide' to choose for a price and time to trigger the next short attack. I dont know when that will come or at which specific price point. but it helps to at least be able to see the various target points on the chart and be prepared for the neck snapping whipsaw slam down when it comes....like yesterday as soon as the rally hit 4.70. That kind of whipsaw should be expected ,with more to come. Imagine how easy it must be for the big money game controllers to push the rally up to a certain point, and when they generate enough profit for a days work, they flip the switch to sell and then short the price right back down and make more money. its a nice game. This rally yesterday is the small move for intraday traders. but the swing trade ,longer term, is looking at the stair steps above 5 dollars,including 5 dollars, before wanting to give up any shares. But if AVXL rallies more like this, and reaches targets higher,I want to try and get a clue as to where would be a good target to take some profit?
That 162% measurement to the first rally wave comes in handy, and there are a few calculations to do now. One is for a completed 5 wave pattern, that started back at the 3.87 bottom and finishes upon yesterdays peak at 4.70...the math for that is 3.87 to 4.70 lets call that 82 cents for easy math. add 162% to 82 and you get about 1.33...add that to 4.70 and the target is around 6 dollars.
Another calculation is for yesterdays rally only, which started at 4.30 and peaked at 4.70...40 cents plus 162% equals 65 cents,add 65 to 4.70 and you get a target around 5.35.
When you look at the daily chart ,you see the larger pullback wave that began in April at 6.23,or the next peak at 6.49,I chart from both peaks to see all angles...the pullback that bottomed at 3.87...ok, from that 3.87 point, we now have a clear 5 wave rally that has finally made its 5th wave yesterday.That 5th wave that peaked at 4.70 in 5 subwaves, it could be a finished subwave at 4.70 or it could rally more today and become a 7 wave rally, etc...and if that happens with higher peaks above 4.70 then the math targets must be recalculated again,as it means the wave 5 is still ongoing . so there is still a little bit of watching that needs doing here and seeing how the pattern play out from here.
IF this rally yesterday proves to be the completed "First rally wave" ,from 3.87 to 4.70....in my view that constitutes a weak rally, because it only reached the lowest of the resistance stair steps at 4.70. no even close to 5 dollars. not even close to the 50ma. its not a strong rally so far. mediocre at best. still in the 4's,AVXL needs to break thru 5 dollars to begin reclaiming bullish momentum in my view. break thru the 50 ma and then hold support above the 50ma. and find those targets above 5 dollars ,like the 5.35 and 6 dollars,the 200ma at 5.65 would begin to regain some bullish respect and Even then...only if the next pullback after that Holds support above 4.70/4.80,and holding above or at 5 dollars would look more bullish in the chart picture. SO there is alot more recovery left for AVXL to achieve in the rally ,and yesterday was just a mall beginning. Ok as a 'first rally wave'...and the completion target for this is around 6 dollars. Right now, watching price action today , when the market opens in a half hour,will be telling some clues as to what the momentum has in store , as the big money decides either to create another downwave to retest the 4.40 support, or whether they decide to push the rally higher to target 4.80/4.90/and close the week reaching for the higher stair steps like these,even trying to hit 5 dollars. IF that happens today and we see bullish follow thru, it would be a sign ,maybe that the Powers are pushing for higher targets now, and we ought to see at least a completed target zone around 6 and probably testing targets higher than 6 dollars. IF we see a continued pullback in the next few days,into next week, then the mathematic finishing target zone would be more like 6 dollars. IF the game is intended to sell AVXL down and keep it down for a longer time frame in the coming weeks, then we should see another downwave to retest the 4.30 support all over again.The chart pattern for a bearish wave structure, would be to see a flat zig zag here around 4.50/4.40, followed by another small rally maybe to target the 5.00-5.20 area and Reach the End of the rally , as an ABC correction, bearish and dangerous for a big short attack , from that 5.15 area,IF AVXL weakens badly around 5.20/5.10 and Fails to show strength to run higher to test 5.60 and show strength in continuation....but instead shows much weakness struggling around the 5 dollar area, then that could be very dangerous and bearish for another short attack.The wave structure would be looking bearish, after an ABC correction wave,that only reaches the 5 dollar area...I would expect to see the big money manipulators and wall street short attackers become like rabid attack dogs,the computer algos will trigger a big sell, upon Failure at 5 dollars and the 50ma. and we might see a retest of 4 dollars and the 3.80 bottom.
Conversely, a better rally to target 6 dollars, having make strong push thru 5 dollars ,and every resistance step at 5.10/5.20/5.30/ pullbacks to 5 dollars Holding and rallying back to push thru 5.30/5.40/and start testing 5.50 and 5.60, now looks to target the 200ma at 5.70, etc...that picture would be much more bullish ...the difference between weakness around 5 dollars and strength pushing beyond 5 dollars ,to target 6 dollars. This is the picture , the 2 contrasting scenarios I'm watching for now in any continuing rally. Today marks the end of week, so what does the MM controllers want the weekly candle to look like? where will price peak and close to end the week. Next week would be a continuation of the ongoing pattern. a push toward 5 dollars today would look positive. A continued pullback to retest 4.40 would be more negative and would need next week to continue the ongoing pattern,the battlezone at 4.45 continues, like it has the last 2 weeks. a false breakout would feel negative,and the battle starts over again if price wallows again around 4.40 we need to see follow thru momentum now. not necessarily today, but certainly next week....rally thru 4.70,rally to test 5 dollars,hold support at 4.70, and climb the higher steps to target 6 dollars. a Weaker rally that Fails at 5 dollars would be a bad sign. http://screencast.com/t/SsmcQUqmnlf
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