Ditto here. But last nite I also acknowledged that we need to think on two distinctly different levels by allowing for an upwards spike while ready to pounce on deep swoons.
Moral of the story:
I added 500 units at $9.35. Admittedly, I got slightly nervous, seeing early morning trades climbing above lows of the previous day. That bugged me as it says I misjudged ALDW's market. However, it also implied I'd come out OK on the day's trade as it appeared likely my $9.35 would hold up. However, I'm good to go on another 200-300, should the price drop appreciably.
I'm still underwater here--:
2,400 units with a CB of $10.83.
My expectation is that units will climb during Q2 up to $13-$14. The quarter (#2) wraps it up the end of June. A declarable distribution payable in July may amount to something in the range of a dollar. However, with that, I believe units will climb very demonstrably, reaching $25 if not higher. The Q3 payout should be at or above $1.35. With this, we may find units at or above $25.
If I'm reasonably close on these projections, I will sell most if not all of my positions in ALDW very soon after ex-distribution day (Q3). Final transactions will hopefully result in the following:
2,400 units rising to $25 from $10.83=$34,000 gained.
Add in $2.35 for 2 Q's of distributions (2,400 units)= $5,600.
Tally: $39,000 to be gained.
Understand these are hardly guaranteed. They are hopes based on a lot of thinking which can sometimes be well off the mark.
The big question for me comes down in large measure to how quickly the energy sector rebounds. I don't trust pundits as they work for their own interests as often as not. I contrast this with my own views which aim to increase wealth, thereby helping others on these boards to profit. I'd love to see many profit from our discussions here at IHUB but will just 90 followers I won't have much impact. However, my personal numbers are published for all to see and I'm hopeful followers will gain.
Key to profitability is not going to rest on how MUCH the energy sector returns to former levels of health. Rather, ALDW's value to us as investors and traders lies in momentum---i.e. how energetically will we observe ALDW climb in response to changing/flattening of the market's dour attitude and distrust of all things energy-related?
I'm beating a dead horse on the subject but I don't care as I know it's the key:
It's about momentum. It includes conviction and a measure of commitment. The pace at which things change tells us better than anything else that MR. Market really means it.
We can usually bank on that.
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