First jobs report in as expected, over 200K. End of week should indicate if companies are starting to cut jobs. Any good news overseas will be amplified in our market action. 2030 seems likely now to be the top of this retrace.
All the talk of doom/gloom when domestically we are finally seeing the consumer get the upper hand. The wage growth these last few months against a backdrop of 14 month stock market churn and deteriorating overseas conditions along with a dramatic low in oil prices is a poker "tell". It shows clearly that to date the overseas problems are not affecting our domestic economy YET.
You heard it here first. Top of this rally should be around 2030. One more decent drop afterwards, but should be the last decent one for the next 2 years. Once China and EU allow their stimulus actions take hold watch out for talks of inflation and how many rate hikes we get.
End of week should give us a good barometer on the health of the consumer.
The bears missed the obvious "W" pattern again by expecting an immediate drop. The bulls were gun shy and doubted the strength of the move. Is this right here the top? Odds are below 25 percent.
If I am right then GOLD should fail soon and swoon. So far the jury is out and it's currently strength is counter to my expectations. Either the stock market move is a fake out or gold is.
March is notoriously a great stock market month. It can also disguise a trend reversal that comes in April.
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