SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[gdl]

Been following market for over 30 years. I do not remember a time when the fundamentals are so strikingly opposed to assumptions on market trend. I believe 90 plus percent of technicians are calling this a bear market. Most are expecting a long winter and deep drops to come.

The medium income of households is now higher than 2007. The rapid rise these past few months is the steepest its ever been according to the survey stated in 2000. Can we fall into a recession at these levels of discretionary income? Isn't it more likely the consumer will accelerate their spending in the immediate future?

Call me stubborn but this doesn't jive with a dire stock market plunge. Perhaps the recent few months data points reverse or get adjusted way down. Perhaps the consumer decides in spite of this phenomena that they hold back on purchases.

Am I missing something? Does anyone try to make sense of the huge discrepancy or do you just take sides and ignore contrary readings?

I am on record from many months ago declaring that 2016 we see multiple rate hikes. It now jives with the data. I think the biggest surprise for analysts is the coming strength of the consumer. The year long problems and churn of our markets has been a direct result of recessions in EU and China. Please show me the data that points to a recession here? We did get one flash readings of contraction in service sector. if that is a trend change than indeed we are in trouble. if not I must conclude we are correcting and not seeing a secular bear market change.

Until the both segments get in line we will debate this. I in a rather lonely bull camp.