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jugs

01/27/16 1:14 PM

#98 RE: pete807 #97

I'm really with you on this one.

There's something else we might look at, however:

Using Ameritrade's facilities, I like to check day-to-day happenings following ex-distributions. What I'm finding this morning is that the unit price drops around $2 within two weeks of going ex. Now, that was based on a much higher payout and unit value, granted. but this is what I'm thinking:

Maybe it'd be smarter to accept the current payout-in-waiting on a smaller position at this moment.

Then, why not forget about today's more or less $3/unit price for a post-distribution valuation of $X-25 cents plus the anticipated drop likely to occur ion the two weeks following ex.? If this proves out as I'm thinking, we'd be much farther ahead instead of trying to add today at much higher valuations which will not be sustained. What it means is that we get 3 of the four 25 cent payouts but buying at much lower price points, we should benefit.

Dividend hunters tend to operate on the moment and not the future. When they realize there's nothing to be gained by holding money in something that won't pay anything for ninety days, they'll leave in droves just as is the case with the MLPs. Why don't we play into that mistake they're going to make?

Your thoughts?

This reminds me of a tactic I've long used that has me selling maybe half a position in the final moments prior to a pick going ex. I'd get the run-up but avoid the collapse the morning after. And then I'd reconstitute as the price dropped following the payout. I always scored better than by taking the distribution along with the 90 period of dust collection.

And there's a failsafe aspect in this, too: I can always buy a month or two later when we know the price will be traveling without the previously paid distribution. There's verrrrry little opportunity to fail.