loanwolf, looked at your chart and analysis today.
i wanted to backtest your indicators against other days before replying but too much happening this weekend. have you tried this indicator config against other periods/fractals?
the signals definitely look promising for tracking thurs' chart. Wm%R, aroon9, ma9 gave pretty optimal signals for that day.
my concern is how accurate some of the signals may be on choppier periods. which is played out a bit in late thurs afternoon.
as a quick test, below is a chart with these indicators applied to recent SPY daily. the Wm%R signals tracked the october rally pretty well from up breach -80 to down breach -20.
aroon9 was less useful for october, offering a late buy signal that was only still useful because the october rally lasted so long (uncommon). compare with aroon9 tracking in nov/dec.
ma13 was also useful for october, but too slow a signal in nov/dec. ma9/ema9 were more accurate in october, and slightly better in nov, but useless in dec.
my general thought is that all of these signals will work but their accurately depends on determining the optimal time period params for them.
aroon is am an easy example therein. due to it simply measuring time since last low/high, it's only useful is you use to correct time period for the chart in question. too long period on choppy chart --> useless. too short period --> too rapid signaling on brief chart hiccups.
eg: aroon5 crossings signal entry/exit of the october rally very well but are very useless in nov/dec due to more rapid chart oscillations.
nutshell, these are great indicators if we can determine a way to reliably determine the underlying oscillation period of the chart. which we might be able to guesstimate from STO patterns. relying on prior trends is obviously unreliable as oscillation periods change pretty rapidly. eg: oct vs nov vs dec.
let's keep trying things and talking about params. as posted earlier, my goal is to develop composite indicators that compile signals from a large number of individual indicators to give a better sense of when tides are shifting.
this will obviously generate middling chaos most of the time. but it may be useful for detecting setups when many stars are aligning signaling reversal.
and there is wisdom in waiting to play big money until such setup arise. eg: B.E.T's notion that trading less is more.
fwiw, below is the 2min chart i was watching thurs. i checked out midday to prep for NYE festivities so didn't watch the afternoon.
but here are the signals i see in it.
opening drop confirmed by both ADX & Awe being increasing bearish in first 15min. i remain wary of trading in first 30 min of day (til 10am) but the signal was strong and following through from prior day.
2min Awe starting shifting bullish early in the drop but ADX was still gapped, which kept me in puts through the drop.
re: inflection to switch from puts to calls:
with my trading style from 2014 i would have focused primarily on RSI & STO, watching for them to both come out of OS which happened at the first blue line. this would have been a pretty perfect signal for thurs.
instead, i was primarily watching Awe & ADX. and eased out of puts as ADX was converging bullish while Awe crossing positive and closed all puts at those crossings (2nd blue line). this was a late signal, so i am going to track RSI and STO more closely again going fwd.
re: exiting calls, the optimal signal would have been: RSI & STO both dropping out of OB while Awe dropping bearish (3rd blue line).
tho, a more reliable general purpose signal adds the ADX bearish cross (4th blue line). again a little late, but more reliable.
the 5th & 6th lines are at ADX crosses as well showing ADX's utility there, too.
i wasn't following the chart closely after exiting calls around noonish. guessing i would have ejected at the 6th line and missed the final drop entirely, which is fine with me. imo, way too late in the day to be flipping weeklies unless ADX/Awe a painting strong trends into the close.
sidenote, MFI (money flow index) combined with RSI & STO was a good indicator on thurs, too.
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