Replies to post #246035 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[md1225]

This is a 20 billion dollar company all day IF approved or partnered in the near term nothing more nothing less.

Do the math when you decide to sell.

[nuke661]

JamesGMS,

If you don't mind I'd like to get in on this conversation and try to share some of my thoughts as this subject because I believe it is the foundation for investment decisions for most of us. You stated:

So I don't think they wait on "final convincing data" from Sunrise as then everyone would be privy to the information.

I'm not sure what your meant to say exactly regarding this "final convincing data" threshold for the BP to make their "big" decision to invest large sums into Peregrine. I believe your "final convincing data" point is either un-blinded data which is good or, FDA approval. Only you can say for sure.

My belief is that the big BP investment commitment that Peregrine wants and is striving for won't be had until the Bavi anti-PS has significant proof of being a wide efficacious platform.

I'm highly confident (doesn't mean I'm 100% sure) in the ability of the Sunrise trial to generate data that will get Bavi approved for 2nd line NS NSCLC. However, I don't feel that Sunrise is going to provide the required proof of being a wide efficacious platform. I don't think Steve King and company do either.

I don't believe they would have gone through all the stock authorization increases and expending so much effort and money into quickly initiating new breast cancer and lung cancer trials unless they thought the response rate data from these new trials (data from actual human trials) was needed, in conjunction with good Sunrise data, to close the first substantial deal that will move this stock big time. My current perspective is that we won't be closing this first substantial deal until we get the response rate data from the new breast cancer, new NSCLC and multiple tumor type trial data or some combo such as 2 oo 3 of these new trials. I just can't bring myself to believe this first big deal will close until that data is available. When I say available I don't mean the data has to have been made public, but enough time will have had to pass to set up these new trials and enroll enough patients and have sufficient ORR data for the BP to see in private.

Once they have this data then I can see the announcement coming out of the blue. However, I just can't see it happening until mid to late 2016 at the earliest but I believe there is a great chance for it to happen in that time frame. I think management has put us on this time line where we won't get the big deal until mid to late 2016 but they expect the deal will be significantly better than if we only had Sunrise data.

One of the flaws with this reasoning that I can see is management's statements regarding how they have been talking to a different level of people since announcing the AZN deal. Maybe, just maybe, the AZN deals will cause some BP will to consider it a strategic imperative to risk jumping in to prevent AZN or any other BP from locking up this platform based on the info available to date. However, I believe that this has a low probability of occurring.

Please, anyone, let me know where there may be holes in this thought process. It would be appreciated.

[Carboat]

Please keep in mind that GILD made their multi billion dollar move on Pharmassett with only Phase II data. So I don't think they wait on "final convincing data" from Sunrise as then everyone would be privy to the information.

Pharmasett was larger than pphm and didn't have the poor track record of pphm; botched trial, failed trials, etc. Nor did they have the ridiculous anti-shareholder bod. So it will likely require solid indisputable data to convince anyone to risk capital and reputation with pphm.

[Protector]

James, Pharmassett did not have a sabotaged clinical trial in PII of which SUNRISE is PIII.

So I think you cannot compare. My statement of final convincing is based on the fact that PPHM, even thought there were not involved in the sabotage that happened at the CRO - CSM in Fargo, took a reputation hit. I explained before that we may not make the mistake to think that every know PPHM as well and in depth as we do and some of the analysts that we hear of on the Quarterlies.

People out there remember, that is if they are part of that extremely small group that heard about PPHM: "PPHM PII dose switching error".

Now BPs will of course have more means to get to the bottom of it, to steal an expression from Carlton, but they will want to be SURE that Bavituximab gets approved on at least one BIG trial and in our case that is SUNRISE.

The money GILD has spend on Pharmassett is a JOKE compare with what they will have on spend on PPHM. And Pharmassett may not have realized what they had or didn't pump the potential out. Now GILD shareholders are making the profits.

So we may disagree but I don't think you can just apply GILD's Pharmassett's strategy, by extrapolation, on GILD's PPHM strategy.