Replies to post #127583 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[GAB]

Zeev...Once again I must plead my non-technical grasp of the wireless industry. I do believe that WCDMA will comprise approximately 75% of the wireless standard, the balance being Qualcomm's CDMA domestic & Korean market. I rely on the information of the IDCC Board on IHUB. Projecting 3 or 5 years out all things will be wireless (handsets are replacing land lines in many households, PDA's, computers, etc.), and IDCC should receive its fair share of royalties based on the 3G standards. They will get royalties from infrastructure as well as handsets. China, a potential mega market, may likely employ another 3G standard in which Siemens and IDCC have IPR. IDCC has IPR in all flavors of 3G, as they say. If you ask questions on the IDCC Board, you will get better answers than you can get from me. Have you read any of the latest analysts reports? Sorry I can't be more specific. Looking at this investment another way, with a market cap of 10% of Qualcom's, the stock would be selling at $50 a share.

[phill]

Zeev, the short answer to your question about IDCC royalty bearing universe is that, however large that universe may become, IDCC will most likely remain a bit player in it.

The lead role in CDMA (all forms, including wCDMA) belongs to QCOM. Other major players in GSM and anything which evolves from the GSM side of the fence (and, to a lesser extent, wCDMA) include MOT, NOK, ERICY and Siemens.

The 3rd "standard" to which GreedAintBad refers (TD-CDMA) as likely to be employed in China is very possibly a non-starter. The technology badly lags QCOM's CDMA, which is presently the fastest growing wireless technolgy in China.

It appears that TD-CDMA's principal uses to date have been 1) as a point of Chinese national pride (to demonstrate the Chinese can provide a competitive technology - not just import the whole wireless thing from the West), and 2) as a bargaining tool to obtain better deals with the big western & wireless companies (MOT, QCOM, NOK, etc) who own the competing standards.

I really can't say why Siemens has invested in it; perhaps just as a long shot since Siemens has very little other CDMA IP.

regards,

phill