It seems lately it works better to watch what's happening in front of us rather than applying historic patterns or probabilities in attempting to discern what's going to happen.
<<<The issue I'm addressing is what is the probability that all 6 days in the most recent sample will be up days>>>
Shouldn't the question be what is the probability having another up day given we've already had 5 up days? They sound similar, but have very different answers (8% vs. ~52%).
P.S. no insults taken here and I'm not trying to start a fight. I have a decent stats background but could still be all wet or just plain confused.
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