Yes, I think that's the most appropriate probability distribution to use b/c the market will be either up or down, so you have to use a discrete probability as opposed to a continuous. Given that, what's the probability of either given the historical distribution of up to down days and the most recent 5 occurrences.
One thing, the probability of a down day hasn't increased. It's still 52%, the historical average. The issue I'm addressing is what is the probability that all 6 days in the most recent sample will be up days. That probability is around 8%.
BTW, I hope the stats lesson here isn't taken as an insult.
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