some very excellent points JohnSamuel. to add to that,...
this is all just my point of view and observations,....
there is no particular reason why the markets respond why they do. it's not just oil,..it's not just real estate,...it's not just corporate earnings,...it's not just unemployment,...it's not just the theory and presumption that there is a Plunge Protection Team manipulating markets (which i do not believe in),...it's not just the banks,..it's not just China changing it's currency evaluation,...it's not just algo bots with HFT programs,....it's not any one thing,..it's cycles. it's nature.
everything on this planet is relegated to cycles,..like it or not. and a cycle is created when certain elements are put in place on a consistent basis and order and repeated. that is how a cycle originates. that's one of the laws that are in motion.
as the saying goes,...Life Happens. or even more accurately,..John Lennon stated, "Life is what happens when you are making other plans."
the market(s) are a by-product of every trader, every institution, every hedge fund, every mutual fund, every marketmaker, etc, etc etc actions,...that is what the market is IMHO. it is a collective contribution that creates the market. and unfortunately there is no one technical or fundamental indicator that displays the whole contribution available for a trader to chart and discern. it's given in pieces for us as traders to connect the dots.
this market is on the verge of a correction that the likes most have not seen. there are too many signals that are being displayed to believe any thing other than that. and way to many to list. but for an example,..pick up a copy of IBD and go to the commodity section and charts. every commodity is in a down trend. every one. what that tells me is consumption is breaking down. there is no money to buy. purchasing is drying up. additionally institutions are distributing (selling) their positions. evaluations are unsustainable.
it's just going to happen. just like it did in 2008 with the entire global economy ready to collapse. what made it happen ? a compilation of myriad contributing factors. and the entirety of those contributing factors have still not been addressed or solved. so guess what,...the rinse and repeat cycle is on its way.
94% of the top S&P companies did what with their corporate earnings ? they bought their own stock back. instead of using that money to improve operations, buy new equipment, upgrade internal operations,...they buy their stock back which inflated the value of their share price. that speaks volumes to me.
to me it's not a matter of if we are in the midst of a correction,..it's just a matter of timing...when ? if we could all figure that out we'd all be very wealthy options traders LOL
i'm going out on a limb and saying that the FED will raise interests rates,..most likely in Sept. they have to. but then then will relower them. there has been none or minimal growth for 6 years under this FED policy of zero interest rates. they have to raise rates.
i think by the first weeks of October 2015 we will see a shift in the markets. to where i don't know. but i'm betting on the downside and have created positions supporting my gut sense.
ok,..i'm done with my rant. i hope i didn't sound preachy towards you or anyone else that reads the post. i was getting some points out and steam out of me. i apologize if it came off in any other way than that.
make it an awesome weekend.
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