Replies to post #193709 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Why the carnage in ESPR?

There are two schools of thought, which are polar opposites: a) ESPR investors wanted the Praluent labels to be less restrictive (i.e. what’s good for the goose is good for the gander); and b) ESPR investors wanted the Praluent labels to be more restrictive (thereby limiting the competitive threat to ETC-1002 from PCSK9 drugs).

I subscribe to b)—i.e. if I were long ESPR, I would want the PCSK9 drugs to have narrow labels; however, there are several people on Twitter who are arguing for a). In support of b), I’ll note that the EMA label for Praluent (#msg-115659856) includes the primary prevention market and is much wider than anyone I know predicted.