Replies to post #10289 on The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[DewDiligence]

MON write-up from St, Louis Business Journal:

http://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/news/2015/06/24/with-or-without-syngenta-monsanto-sees-chemicals.html

[jbog]

one way or another, MON intends to make chemicals a bigger part of its business.

I thought that was evident when they announced they would divest all the Syngenta seed and traits products.

Monsanto has more financial engineering rather than product engineering.

[DewDiligence]

Bayer CropScience may be MON’s fallback plan if MON’s pursuit of SYT doesn’t pan out:

http://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/blog/2015/06/if-syngenta-deal-fizzles-here-s-what-a-monsanto.html

[DewDiligence]

MON boosts annualized dividend to $2.16/sh (from prior payout of $1.96):

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/monsanto-board-approves-increase-quarterly-160000470.html

At the current share price, the new payout represents a dividend yield of 2.1%.

[DewDiligence]

MON flattish despite weak FY4Q16* non-GAAP EPS guidance of $5.10-5.60, a YoY decline of 2-11%. Currency—especially the decline of Brazil’s Real vs the US Dollar—will cost MON $0.30-0.35 of EPS in FY2016.

Evidently, the large sell-off of MON’s stock in the past few months has fully discounted the weak outlook for FY2016.

Moreover, MON is maintaining its long-term forecast that FY2019 non-GAAP EPS will be at least double the $5.23 recorded in FY2014. Meeting this goal will require a non-GAAP EPS CAGR of >20% from FY2016 through FY2019 (see slide #7 at the link below), which will be tough to accomplish and will require, at a minimum, aggressive share buybacks.

--
FY4Q15 PR:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-portfolio-leading-innovation-financial-120000585.html

FY4Q15 CC slides:
http://www.monsanto.com/investors/Documents/2015/2015.10.06_MON_Q4F15_Earnings.pdf

*MON’s fiscal year ends on August 31.